Now that we have two NFL guys running the crootin' front office, I imagine they are doing some analytics. I was curious myself, so I pulled the 2023 scholarship offer data from here on Rivals to see what the numbers say.
Here is the overall picture. AU has given out 234 scholarship offers. Thus far we have 6 commits. That is a "success rate" of 2.56%. We missed on 68.8% of our offers (i.e. the player is currently committed somewhere else). And 28.63% of our offers remain "undecided." Of course the success rate will go up if we land some of the "undecideds" or flip some players. But it shows that up to this point in the cycle, we seem to be fishing with some stanky bait and can't close.
Now sure, our miss rate may be up because we may have cooled on some guys who received offers and didn't really want them. But still - 68.8%?
We have 66 total offers out to "undecideds." If this class is going to get to 24 or so commits, we will: (i) need to suddenly increase our "hit rate" on undecideds to 27%; (ii) make some very late offers to guys that have already been recruited by other schools for some time now; or (iii) flip some guys.
Here are the numbers by Rivals position group:
Based on the undecideds we have outstanding, we could definitely land some quality guys to fill out this class. But we need to have a lot of success to get there. What I have not done is looked at those 66 guys to see what our chances look like on the more highly-rated guys.
The weird thing is that in most position groups, we are not getting "owned" by Alabama or Georgia. We are losing a lot of guys we offered to Miami, Notre Dame, Florida State, Clemson, Oregon, Stanford, UCF, UNC, South Carolina, etc.
Feel free to check me on this. Anyone think these numbers are just typical for a recruiting cycle at this point in the year?
TL/DR - Crootin' stats to date seem pretty abysmal. We have outstanding offers to put together a good class but we need to close at a world class level.
Here is the overall picture. AU has given out 234 scholarship offers. Thus far we have 6 commits. That is a "success rate" of 2.56%. We missed on 68.8% of our offers (i.e. the player is currently committed somewhere else). And 28.63% of our offers remain "undecided." Of course the success rate will go up if we land some of the "undecideds" or flip some players. But it shows that up to this point in the cycle, we seem to be fishing with some stanky bait and can't close.
Now sure, our miss rate may be up because we may have cooled on some guys who received offers and didn't really want them. But still - 68.8%?
We have 66 total offers out to "undecideds." If this class is going to get to 24 or so commits, we will: (i) need to suddenly increase our "hit rate" on undecideds to 27%; (ii) make some very late offers to guys that have already been recruited by other schools for some time now; or (iii) flip some guys.
Here are the numbers by Rivals position group:
| Position | Offers | AU Commits | Misses | Undecided | Miss Rate |
| APB | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 66.67% |
| ATH | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 62.50% |
| C | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| CB | 20 | 0 | 12 | 8 | 60% |
| DT | 16 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 50% |
| Dual | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 100% |
| ILB | 13 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 84.62% |
| OG | 11 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 81.82% |
| OLB | 16 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 68.75% |
| OT | 28 | 0 | 23 | 5 | 82.14% |
| Pro | 11 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 81.82% |
| RB | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 66.67% |
| S | 10 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 80% |
| SDE | 28 | 1 | 17 | 11 | 57.14% |
| TE | 13 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 100% |
| WDE | 15 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 60% |
| WR | 29 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 55.17% |
Based on the undecideds we have outstanding, we could definitely land some quality guys to fill out this class. But we need to have a lot of success to get there. What I have not done is looked at those 66 guys to see what our chances look like on the more highly-rated guys.
The weird thing is that in most position groups, we are not getting "owned" by Alabama or Georgia. We are losing a lot of guys we offered to Miami, Notre Dame, Florida State, Clemson, Oregon, Stanford, UCF, UNC, South Carolina, etc.
Feel free to check me on this. Anyone think these numbers are just typical for a recruiting cycle at this point in the year?
TL/DR - Crootin' stats to date seem pretty abysmal. We have outstanding offers to put together a good class but we need to close at a world class level.
