As my last post objectively and analytically obliged Auburn's weaknesses and deficiencies, this post will will emphasize AU's strengths, and the variables that could lead to a successful season that most outside AU would never see coming.
Personnel:
1) The Secondary: Auburn's secondary remains deep and versatile, with an increased number of players adept at playing man coverage. NPritchett returns as the nation's highest graded man coverage corner. Using the Iron Bowl to foreshadow what AU's defensive schme will look like this season, an increased number of 5 man pressures and man coverage concepts are to be expected, and in volume. Safety addition Craig McDonald is a great addition, with a lot of experience in the pass happy Big12, that has shown tremendous range and ball skills on film. He is a coverage upgrade over the graduates, Knighton and Monday. Using a combination of Kaufman and James/Simpson as the nickel slot defender allows Schmed a lot of circumstantial flexibility at that position. The top shelf youth additions of Rhym, Ausberry, and Wooden should be ready and capable of providing even more valuable depth once AU hits late October.
2) Defensive Line: JJones is a major upgrade over TFair, MoJoseph is a wild card interior pass rusher that frees up Wooden and Harris to move around, and can spell them in the rotation in the green zone portion of the field. Z Walker is primed for a major step forward this season after Covid and injuries derailed him last year. Hall is amongst the nation's best at edge and an absolute juice monster of a teammate that his guys can feed off of. Leota is 15 pounds heavier, and should be even more effective. Mba could be a true bonus weapon as his health and practice volume continue to improve.
3) The TE Room: This group is deeper and more talented than any SEC TE group outside of Athens. Size, physicality, and athleticism exists in volume. It did last year too. Last season I feel that outside of Shenker, Bobo failed to employ the group at its full effective level. Harsin has historically used TE heavy groups at very high frequencies. Playing 2,3, even 4 TEs at a time can help AU: take pressure off an unproven WR corps, provide support to an OL by expanding the surface of the line of scrimmage by multiple gaps and creating more advantageous blocking angles, be utlized in a passing game that moreso resembles low-post basketball play and exploits size advantages over the trendy smaller faster LBs of the SEC.
4) RB: Perhaps the best 1-2 punch in the conference, and a Damari Alston who is 200+ pounds and being slept on by all of us. This is a group of backs that can be effective in the run and pass game. Allow AU to utilize 2 back sets on the field, and motion guys in and out of the backfield to break coverage rules and create mismatches. You also have a room full of guys that together could shoulder the load of 40+ carries a game and dictate the games pace and tempo. In an offense that will lean more on the stretch/outside zone using TEs to leverage the edges, as opposed to the duo and midzone schemes that were overly prevalent last season, there should be an opportunity for more big runs, and less opportunity for the OL to lose inside the tackles at the point of attack.
*** Quarterback: Calzada doesn't have to be great. He has to be healthy, and consistent. If he can throw for somewhere in the range of 2700 yards and 25 touchdowns, with less than 10 Ints.... Auburn is a dangerous, dangerous team!
****OL: Historically speaking, one of the single most accurate forecasting barometers for football success has been when a team returns over 80% of their snaps on the OL. It's a rarity to a high degree that on average projects to 9+ wins. However, AU has had such happen twice in the last 6 years and produced mediocre seasons both times. If this group can simply improve its ability to win short yardage run downs, this team is 2 games better than last season. If they can improve their protection rate vs 5 man pressures, and allow the QB time to get through their first two progressions with consistency, that's worth another win. (Another full year spent in and S&C program not training for HUNH tempo that you aren't going to run on Saturdays anyway, should be demonstrated in a evident physiological manner.)
Coaching:
1) Kiesau is the guy Harsin wanted to begin with. The guy most in tune with his own offensive vision, and the one who sees the roster in the same way Harsin does. Watch Boise vs Troy from 2018 when the Broncos boat raced Neal Brown's 10 win Troy team. They used an expanded front and an aggressive perimeter run game to set up play action shots down field that were open and effective with regularity. It won't be a "trendy" tempo based RPO attack, but rather will vary personnel groups, create conflict with sets, motions, and variable tendencies within posessions to be a more efficient and effective scheme. The TE group and a talented group of Slot receivers offer a lot of offensive versatility in the position that can be multi-faceted and used to exploit opponents defensive personnel differently week to week.
2) Schmedding is a more aggressive defensive play caller than Mason was last season, or even Steele in years prior. He will blend a lot more pressure based calls on run and pass downs, while mixing in zone coverages and pattern match concepts to ensure QBs don't get comfortable eyes (Will Rogers). There should also be the opportunity with this DL/EDGE personnel to mix and match groupings up front that cause problems for OLs based on their deficiencies week to week. AU has the personnel to go smaller and faster when need be, bigger and stronger when need be, and vary 4man, 3man, and 2man down fronts. Schmedding calling from the field, with some very well-trained eyes above him in the box will also improve the efficiency of this team's on field communication. When you look back at last season's PSU game and Auburn struggled mightily to adjust to the obtuse motions being used, having your DC on your sideline for adjustments rather than a third party conduit cleans that up.
3) Ike Hilliard: The receiver room went through tumult last season with a mid year coaching change, and some internal personality clashes. Hilliard is a pro's pro, with a refined approach, and no BS perpetuated or allowed. The stability he will bring to this group, as well as the technical improvement should progress them forward. Koy Moore should be atleast what Kobe Hudson gave AU last season if not more, MJJr should be more effective than DRob was last season, Shed should be a stronger more reliable version of what he already brought to the table, Dawson/Fair/Johnson provide dangerous ability in space from the slot, and King and Brown have high developmental ceilings as big mis-match making targets. Not to mention Capers, who has NFL ability that has yet to translate. Say Hilliard takes this group forward 15-20% in terms of output from last season, that's worth another W.
The Schedule:
Mercer- Auburn should win off physics alone.
SJSU- Auburn should win off physics alone.
PSU- Lost their DC, best WR, 4 best defenders, playing in SEC heat and humidity, should've taken an L from AU last season.
Mizzou- Can't run the ball or stop the run effectively. No proven QB. Best offensive player will be a true frosh.
LSU- Kelly's first SEC season and first trip to JH, a 9th year QB that has never held on to the job, only 1 proven offensive player, new systems on both sides of the ball.
@UGA- Loaded roster, but lost an immense amount of talent to the NFL, lost their DC, having to handle success for the first time, defensive depth and versatility will be lessened, as will RB and WR talent.
@OleMiss- New OC, new QB. New DC, lost top 6 defenders. Roster built on transfer guys that could blow up by this point in the season. AU beat a better OM team last year.
Arky- Can Jefferson be effective without Burkes? Lost 3 of top 5 defenders. Team isn't deep overall and will be in the midst of their schedule's toughest stretch. @ JHS
@MissSt - This game should have been a route W last season. They bring back a lot, but it's not a lot of top shelf SEC talent. They lack the overall team speed that the majority of the conference has.
Taamu- Is Max Johnson a winning SEC QB? Lost elite talent on OL/DL/TE. New defensive system. Fisher doesn't thrive under high expectations. @ JHS
WKU- Auburn should win off physics alone.
@bama- The OL will be a huge question mark for bama all year. Can they hold up, can they keep Young healthy and upright? The receiving corps won't be as dynamic, and Gibbs ( a transfer) is the only proven option at RB.
It is a tough schedule to look at. However, a lot of the teams that are being touted as better than Auburn this pre-season actually have more questions to answer than AU. The margin of difference in Auburn's 6-7 season last year and what could have been 9-4/10-3 was THIN. It is actually relatively easy to believe that same margin can be closed or reversed. Auburn can do a few things better, that a full year of development lends itself to, and become a much better team: improve the short yardage run game, be more aggresive on 3rd down defense, improve receiver catch rate, and stabalize FG kicking. Those four reasonable improvements could very well make for an Auburn team that defies the majority of its pre-season projections and finishes with a win total in the 8-10 range.
TL;DNR......SIW
Personnel:
1) The Secondary: Auburn's secondary remains deep and versatile, with an increased number of players adept at playing man coverage. NPritchett returns as the nation's highest graded man coverage corner. Using the Iron Bowl to foreshadow what AU's defensive schme will look like this season, an increased number of 5 man pressures and man coverage concepts are to be expected, and in volume. Safety addition Craig McDonald is a great addition, with a lot of experience in the pass happy Big12, that has shown tremendous range and ball skills on film. He is a coverage upgrade over the graduates, Knighton and Monday. Using a combination of Kaufman and James/Simpson as the nickel slot defender allows Schmed a lot of circumstantial flexibility at that position. The top shelf youth additions of Rhym, Ausberry, and Wooden should be ready and capable of providing even more valuable depth once AU hits late October.
2) Defensive Line: JJones is a major upgrade over TFair, MoJoseph is a wild card interior pass rusher that frees up Wooden and Harris to move around, and can spell them in the rotation in the green zone portion of the field. Z Walker is primed for a major step forward this season after Covid and injuries derailed him last year. Hall is amongst the nation's best at edge and an absolute juice monster of a teammate that his guys can feed off of. Leota is 15 pounds heavier, and should be even more effective. Mba could be a true bonus weapon as his health and practice volume continue to improve.
3) The TE Room: This group is deeper and more talented than any SEC TE group outside of Athens. Size, physicality, and athleticism exists in volume. It did last year too. Last season I feel that outside of Shenker, Bobo failed to employ the group at its full effective level. Harsin has historically used TE heavy groups at very high frequencies. Playing 2,3, even 4 TEs at a time can help AU: take pressure off an unproven WR corps, provide support to an OL by expanding the surface of the line of scrimmage by multiple gaps and creating more advantageous blocking angles, be utlized in a passing game that moreso resembles low-post basketball play and exploits size advantages over the trendy smaller faster LBs of the SEC.
4) RB: Perhaps the best 1-2 punch in the conference, and a Damari Alston who is 200+ pounds and being slept on by all of us. This is a group of backs that can be effective in the run and pass game. Allow AU to utilize 2 back sets on the field, and motion guys in and out of the backfield to break coverage rules and create mismatches. You also have a room full of guys that together could shoulder the load of 40+ carries a game and dictate the games pace and tempo. In an offense that will lean more on the stretch/outside zone using TEs to leverage the edges, as opposed to the duo and midzone schemes that were overly prevalent last season, there should be an opportunity for more big runs, and less opportunity for the OL to lose inside the tackles at the point of attack.
*** Quarterback: Calzada doesn't have to be great. He has to be healthy, and consistent. If he can throw for somewhere in the range of 2700 yards and 25 touchdowns, with less than 10 Ints.... Auburn is a dangerous, dangerous team!
****OL: Historically speaking, one of the single most accurate forecasting barometers for football success has been when a team returns over 80% of their snaps on the OL. It's a rarity to a high degree that on average projects to 9+ wins. However, AU has had such happen twice in the last 6 years and produced mediocre seasons both times. If this group can simply improve its ability to win short yardage run downs, this team is 2 games better than last season. If they can improve their protection rate vs 5 man pressures, and allow the QB time to get through their first two progressions with consistency, that's worth another win. (Another full year spent in and S&C program not training for HUNH tempo that you aren't going to run on Saturdays anyway, should be demonstrated in a evident physiological manner.)
Coaching:
1) Kiesau is the guy Harsin wanted to begin with. The guy most in tune with his own offensive vision, and the one who sees the roster in the same way Harsin does. Watch Boise vs Troy from 2018 when the Broncos boat raced Neal Brown's 10 win Troy team. They used an expanded front and an aggressive perimeter run game to set up play action shots down field that were open and effective with regularity. It won't be a "trendy" tempo based RPO attack, but rather will vary personnel groups, create conflict with sets, motions, and variable tendencies within posessions to be a more efficient and effective scheme. The TE group and a talented group of Slot receivers offer a lot of offensive versatility in the position that can be multi-faceted and used to exploit opponents defensive personnel differently week to week.
2) Schmedding is a more aggressive defensive play caller than Mason was last season, or even Steele in years prior. He will blend a lot more pressure based calls on run and pass downs, while mixing in zone coverages and pattern match concepts to ensure QBs don't get comfortable eyes (Will Rogers). There should also be the opportunity with this DL/EDGE personnel to mix and match groupings up front that cause problems for OLs based on their deficiencies week to week. AU has the personnel to go smaller and faster when need be, bigger and stronger when need be, and vary 4man, 3man, and 2man down fronts. Schmedding calling from the field, with some very well-trained eyes above him in the box will also improve the efficiency of this team's on field communication. When you look back at last season's PSU game and Auburn struggled mightily to adjust to the obtuse motions being used, having your DC on your sideline for adjustments rather than a third party conduit cleans that up.
3) Ike Hilliard: The receiver room went through tumult last season with a mid year coaching change, and some internal personality clashes. Hilliard is a pro's pro, with a refined approach, and no BS perpetuated or allowed. The stability he will bring to this group, as well as the technical improvement should progress them forward. Koy Moore should be atleast what Kobe Hudson gave AU last season if not more, MJJr should be more effective than DRob was last season, Shed should be a stronger more reliable version of what he already brought to the table, Dawson/Fair/Johnson provide dangerous ability in space from the slot, and King and Brown have high developmental ceilings as big mis-match making targets. Not to mention Capers, who has NFL ability that has yet to translate. Say Hilliard takes this group forward 15-20% in terms of output from last season, that's worth another W.
The Schedule:
Mercer- Auburn should win off physics alone.
SJSU- Auburn should win off physics alone.
PSU- Lost their DC, best WR, 4 best defenders, playing in SEC heat and humidity, should've taken an L from AU last season.
Mizzou- Can't run the ball or stop the run effectively. No proven QB. Best offensive player will be a true frosh.
LSU- Kelly's first SEC season and first trip to JH, a 9th year QB that has never held on to the job, only 1 proven offensive player, new systems on both sides of the ball.
@UGA- Loaded roster, but lost an immense amount of talent to the NFL, lost their DC, having to handle success for the first time, defensive depth and versatility will be lessened, as will RB and WR talent.
@OleMiss- New OC, new QB. New DC, lost top 6 defenders. Roster built on transfer guys that could blow up by this point in the season. AU beat a better OM team last year.
Arky- Can Jefferson be effective without Burkes? Lost 3 of top 5 defenders. Team isn't deep overall and will be in the midst of their schedule's toughest stretch. @ JHS
@MissSt - This game should have been a route W last season. They bring back a lot, but it's not a lot of top shelf SEC talent. They lack the overall team speed that the majority of the conference has.
Taamu- Is Max Johnson a winning SEC QB? Lost elite talent on OL/DL/TE. New defensive system. Fisher doesn't thrive under high expectations. @ JHS
WKU- Auburn should win off physics alone.
@bama- The OL will be a huge question mark for bama all year. Can they hold up, can they keep Young healthy and upright? The receiving corps won't be as dynamic, and Gibbs ( a transfer) is the only proven option at RB.
It is a tough schedule to look at. However, a lot of the teams that are being touted as better than Auburn this pre-season actually have more questions to answer than AU. The margin of difference in Auburn's 6-7 season last year and what could have been 9-4/10-3 was THIN. It is actually relatively easy to believe that same margin can be closed or reversed. Auburn can do a few things better, that a full year of development lends itself to, and become a much better team: improve the short yardage run game, be more aggresive on 3rd down defense, improve receiver catch rate, and stabalize FG kicking. Those four reasonable improvements could very well make for an Auburn team that defies the majority of its pre-season projections and finishes with a win total in the 8-10 range.
TL;DNR......SIW
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