To keep balance in the force, I will make two fall camp preview posts. One that will cover what could go wrong for Auburn, based on existing deficiencies and noted trends from last season. This is not an attempt to be D&G, but rather objectively critical/cautious. The follow up will be the antithesis; objectively optimistic.
Personnel:
Going into fall camp Auburn has 4 major positional deficiencies on the roster that have to be signinficantly improved in order for Auburn to avoid the basement of the SEC West.
1) Offensive Line: the biggest barometer of failure, and elemental dynamic that could have changed the season entirely, was AU's inability to run the ball and convert 3rd and 3 or less, 101st nationally! That is not and has never been Auburn football. Short yard run game conversions flip the W/L record by 3 (bama, PSU, SCar) if you simply add one more 3rd down rushing conversion in each one of those games. The problem existed because of the OL's inability to establish movement at the point of contact. Auburn leaned heavily on mid-zone and duo concepts in the run game, both require atleast one double team block that absolutely must displace the defender and have one of the double team blockers climb up to a linebacker at the second level. That rarely, if ever, happened. The result was Tank having to run too laterally and being forced away from the cutback lane of the zone, and getting tee'd off on by free running linebackers. After 4-5 games he quit even looking to read the blocks and simply tried to manifest yardage off the strong side run angle with his speed. It didn't work well. On gap scheme runs the center too often was reset into the offensive backfield making it difficult for pullers to execute their blocking assignments. For this offense to be better the OL must 1-Move bodies at the LoS, 2-Climb to the 2nd level to block linebackers, and 3-effectively exectute gap scheme run blocks
2) Quarterback: I do believe Calzada has the tools to be successful in the scheme Hars and Keys want to run, however, he's been a substantial injuiry risk so far in his young career (last season and off-season). Auburn's OL forced Nix to move alot, make things happen, and take relatively significant amount of contact. IF Calzada can't hold up health wise, AU may be in trouble. Finley's mobility must improve dramatically, and his height makes his throwing angle awkward. (Only two college QB's his height or taller have ever had winning seasons with over 2500 passing yards, Brock Osweiler and Dan McGuire) Ashford is dynamic, but is limited conceptually at this point, and was extremely turnover prone all spring. Gernier is an untested true frosh. For Auburn to have a successful season Calzada will have to stay healthy, and play the way he played against Alabama and the following 4 game stretch, or Finley will have to have progressed farther than any quarterback in the modern football era.
3) Wide receiver: There is simply no proven, or existing, production on the roster. Auburn doesn't have a receiver over 6'2 that has prodiced any discernable statistics. Capers seems to have the physical ability, but no confidence from this staff so far. Shed is Shed. The proverbial speed merchangs, MJJ and Dawson, haven't seen enough action to make you confident in their abilities. Johnson had some moments in slot last year, mostly being overthrown by Nix, then almost transfered, now is back. Fair is a of the Dawson/Johnson mold, albeit maybe more refined in his route running as a frosh. Koy Moore didn't do anything that warranted attention at LSU. This group could ne collectively effective, but there seems to be no one on the roster with definitive SEC #1 ability. The coaches will have to effectively mix and match receiver groupings without creating too many tendencies to be keyed on, and move players around with motions and strategic alignments to challgenge coverage rules. Ike Hilliard is new to coaching the college game, and how his nuanced approach translates to the field on Saturdays is another variable to watch.
4) Linebacker: Owen Pappoe is an elite athlete for the position. He has never had a "winning" football grade aligned inside at Mike or Will, though. His best football at Auburn was outside as a force player/big nickel under Steele, with a high blitz frequency. Pappoe is an ideal NFL "dime 'backer", he also struggled to stay on the field and healthy. Most of Auburn's eggs at the linebacker position are in OP's basket. Wesley Steiner brings every off the field intangible you could want for an inside linebacker. However, his tape from last season showed someone who played with poor eye discipline, took false steps, and played the position far too laterally. Kam Riley has good instincts, great length, and isn't afraid to be physical, but so far loses leverage on contact and struggles disengaging from blocks, while also have a tendency to stare into the backfield in coverage and lose sight of recievers in his zone. Eugene Asante is essentially "Pappoe lite" as he has demonstrated great athleticism and has been a playmaker in bursts, but never found conssitent playing time or production at UNC, partly because of injury concerns.
-Also-
**5** Place Kicking- McPherson is a true frosh, and Anders is coming off his worst year and a torn ACL. Hard to have faith that AU is ready for clutch kicking success right out of the gate.
Coaching:
* Neither Eric Kiesau nor Jeff Schmedding have ever called a game in the SEC, a conference littered with more speed, athletic versatility, and trench talent than anywhere outside the NFL. They could very well have a tough transition between their core schematic beliefs and what will and won't work in the SEC. Football west of the Mississippi generally has a much more finesse DNA, relies on technique and strategy in the absence of extraordinary physics, and operates much more around the 4.6-4.7 speed range than the 4.4-4.5 of the SEC. It is still football, but through a different spectrum. Keys will see a lot more man coverage, and a lot more pressure concepts, than he saw week in and week out in the PAC or MWC. Schmed will have to be very multiple, effectively disguise coverages, and have plenty of "in game" adjustments in his tool belt.
The staff has to show better resolve in crucial moments; short yardage offensive play calls, change of possession offensive plays, third and long defensive calls. Those three scenarios were collectively tough on AU last season and require adjustments on how they are approached, called, and executed.
Will the offensive line progress in year 2 under Will Friend? Friend has always been known as more of a recruiter than technician, right now-from the outside looking in- he doesn't seem to be thriving at either. Last season the OL was soft with their hands and lazy with their feet. Those two things are correctable by an OL coach. Their ability to push weight has to be improved through S&C.
The Schedule:
Mercer- Auburn should win off physics alone.
SJSU- Auburn should win off physics alone.
PSU- Comparable roster in a big game atmosphere, PSU has a 4 year starter returning at QB, and this will be the first legit DL AU faces all season.
Mizzou- Drink will throw the kitchen sink at AU's defense and give Schmed more motions, counters, gadgetry, and eye candy than he's ever seen on a Saturday before. Think 2009 Gus.
LSU- Standard LSU talent level with NFL players at every level, now coached up by a much more disciplined and refined Brian Kelly. This LSU won't beat themselves.
@UGA- Loaded roster, returning starter at QB, on the road. If AU isn't 5-0, healthy, and brimming with confidence, this one is too tough of a row to hoe.
@OleMiss- Kiffin reloaded his offense through the transfer portal, and blends an elite RB, dual threat QB, and a healthy Mingo at WR (most gifted WR they've had since DKM)...AU must slow them down or show the ability to win a shoot out.
Arky- Second year in Briles's offense for KJ, top tier backfield talent, rock solid OL, top tier SEC DC with his two best defenders coming back in Poole and Catalon.
@MissSt - Returns more starters than any team in the SEC, returns the SEC's most effective passing QB, Air Raid shredded AU defense last season.
Taamu- NFL talent abounds in the secondary, Jimbo seems to maximize QB talent and is very high on Max Johnson, Achane is perhaps college football's best homerun hitter at RB.
WKU- Auburn should win off physics alone.
@bama- Heisman winner, best defensive player in college football, 2-4 first rounders in secondary, GOAT of CFB coaches, in Tuscaloosa.
It's incredibly hard to look at that schedule and feel confident about more than 3-5 wins, there are a lot of toss up games. Auburn has as many questions as answers at the moment, needs depth to improve and injuries to be avoided, and both coordinators need to show they have teh chops to win in the SEC. Safe money, and vegas agrees, would be betting on AU as a 5-6 win team when you take this all into consideration.
TL;DNR;SIW
Personnel:
Going into fall camp Auburn has 4 major positional deficiencies on the roster that have to be signinficantly improved in order for Auburn to avoid the basement of the SEC West.
1) Offensive Line: the biggest barometer of failure, and elemental dynamic that could have changed the season entirely, was AU's inability to run the ball and convert 3rd and 3 or less, 101st nationally! That is not and has never been Auburn football. Short yard run game conversions flip the W/L record by 3 (bama, PSU, SCar) if you simply add one more 3rd down rushing conversion in each one of those games. The problem existed because of the OL's inability to establish movement at the point of contact. Auburn leaned heavily on mid-zone and duo concepts in the run game, both require atleast one double team block that absolutely must displace the defender and have one of the double team blockers climb up to a linebacker at the second level. That rarely, if ever, happened. The result was Tank having to run too laterally and being forced away from the cutback lane of the zone, and getting tee'd off on by free running linebackers. After 4-5 games he quit even looking to read the blocks and simply tried to manifest yardage off the strong side run angle with his speed. It didn't work well. On gap scheme runs the center too often was reset into the offensive backfield making it difficult for pullers to execute their blocking assignments. For this offense to be better the OL must 1-Move bodies at the LoS, 2-Climb to the 2nd level to block linebackers, and 3-effectively exectute gap scheme run blocks
2) Quarterback: I do believe Calzada has the tools to be successful in the scheme Hars and Keys want to run, however, he's been a substantial injuiry risk so far in his young career (last season and off-season). Auburn's OL forced Nix to move alot, make things happen, and take relatively significant amount of contact. IF Calzada can't hold up health wise, AU may be in trouble. Finley's mobility must improve dramatically, and his height makes his throwing angle awkward. (Only two college QB's his height or taller have ever had winning seasons with over 2500 passing yards, Brock Osweiler and Dan McGuire) Ashford is dynamic, but is limited conceptually at this point, and was extremely turnover prone all spring. Gernier is an untested true frosh. For Auburn to have a successful season Calzada will have to stay healthy, and play the way he played against Alabama and the following 4 game stretch, or Finley will have to have progressed farther than any quarterback in the modern football era.
3) Wide receiver: There is simply no proven, or existing, production on the roster. Auburn doesn't have a receiver over 6'2 that has prodiced any discernable statistics. Capers seems to have the physical ability, but no confidence from this staff so far. Shed is Shed. The proverbial speed merchangs, MJJ and Dawson, haven't seen enough action to make you confident in their abilities. Johnson had some moments in slot last year, mostly being overthrown by Nix, then almost transfered, now is back. Fair is a of the Dawson/Johnson mold, albeit maybe more refined in his route running as a frosh. Koy Moore didn't do anything that warranted attention at LSU. This group could ne collectively effective, but there seems to be no one on the roster with definitive SEC #1 ability. The coaches will have to effectively mix and match receiver groupings without creating too many tendencies to be keyed on, and move players around with motions and strategic alignments to challgenge coverage rules. Ike Hilliard is new to coaching the college game, and how his nuanced approach translates to the field on Saturdays is another variable to watch.
4) Linebacker: Owen Pappoe is an elite athlete for the position. He has never had a "winning" football grade aligned inside at Mike or Will, though. His best football at Auburn was outside as a force player/big nickel under Steele, with a high blitz frequency. Pappoe is an ideal NFL "dime 'backer", he also struggled to stay on the field and healthy. Most of Auburn's eggs at the linebacker position are in OP's basket. Wesley Steiner brings every off the field intangible you could want for an inside linebacker. However, his tape from last season showed someone who played with poor eye discipline, took false steps, and played the position far too laterally. Kam Riley has good instincts, great length, and isn't afraid to be physical, but so far loses leverage on contact and struggles disengaging from blocks, while also have a tendency to stare into the backfield in coverage and lose sight of recievers in his zone. Eugene Asante is essentially "Pappoe lite" as he has demonstrated great athleticism and has been a playmaker in bursts, but never found conssitent playing time or production at UNC, partly because of injury concerns.
-Also-
**5** Place Kicking- McPherson is a true frosh, and Anders is coming off his worst year and a torn ACL. Hard to have faith that AU is ready for clutch kicking success right out of the gate.
Coaching:
* Neither Eric Kiesau nor Jeff Schmedding have ever called a game in the SEC, a conference littered with more speed, athletic versatility, and trench talent than anywhere outside the NFL. They could very well have a tough transition between their core schematic beliefs and what will and won't work in the SEC. Football west of the Mississippi generally has a much more finesse DNA, relies on technique and strategy in the absence of extraordinary physics, and operates much more around the 4.6-4.7 speed range than the 4.4-4.5 of the SEC. It is still football, but through a different spectrum. Keys will see a lot more man coverage, and a lot more pressure concepts, than he saw week in and week out in the PAC or MWC. Schmed will have to be very multiple, effectively disguise coverages, and have plenty of "in game" adjustments in his tool belt.
The staff has to show better resolve in crucial moments; short yardage offensive play calls, change of possession offensive plays, third and long defensive calls. Those three scenarios were collectively tough on AU last season and require adjustments on how they are approached, called, and executed.
Will the offensive line progress in year 2 under Will Friend? Friend has always been known as more of a recruiter than technician, right now-from the outside looking in- he doesn't seem to be thriving at either. Last season the OL was soft with their hands and lazy with their feet. Those two things are correctable by an OL coach. Their ability to push weight has to be improved through S&C.
The Schedule:
Mercer- Auburn should win off physics alone.
SJSU- Auburn should win off physics alone.
PSU- Comparable roster in a big game atmosphere, PSU has a 4 year starter returning at QB, and this will be the first legit DL AU faces all season.
Mizzou- Drink will throw the kitchen sink at AU's defense and give Schmed more motions, counters, gadgetry, and eye candy than he's ever seen on a Saturday before. Think 2009 Gus.
LSU- Standard LSU talent level with NFL players at every level, now coached up by a much more disciplined and refined Brian Kelly. This LSU won't beat themselves.
@UGA- Loaded roster, returning starter at QB, on the road. If AU isn't 5-0, healthy, and brimming with confidence, this one is too tough of a row to hoe.
@OleMiss- Kiffin reloaded his offense through the transfer portal, and blends an elite RB, dual threat QB, and a healthy Mingo at WR (most gifted WR they've had since DKM)...AU must slow them down or show the ability to win a shoot out.
Arky- Second year in Briles's offense for KJ, top tier backfield talent, rock solid OL, top tier SEC DC with his two best defenders coming back in Poole and Catalon.
@MissSt - Returns more starters than any team in the SEC, returns the SEC's most effective passing QB, Air Raid shredded AU defense last season.
Taamu- NFL talent abounds in the secondary, Jimbo seems to maximize QB talent and is very high on Max Johnson, Achane is perhaps college football's best homerun hitter at RB.
WKU- Auburn should win off physics alone.
@bama- Heisman winner, best defensive player in college football, 2-4 first rounders in secondary, GOAT of CFB coaches, in Tuscaloosa.
It's incredibly hard to look at that schedule and feel confident about more than 3-5 wins, there are a lot of toss up games. Auburn has as many questions as answers at the moment, needs depth to improve and injuries to be avoided, and both coordinators need to show they have teh chops to win in the SEC. Safe money, and vegas agrees, would be betting on AU as a 5-6 win team when you take this all into consideration.
TL;DNR;SIW
