Auburn basketball is 1/3rd through the SEC schedule. Where do we stand?

MattAU05 · Jan 19, 2017

I figured 1/3rd through the SEC would be a good spot to take a look at what this season has been like so far.

I was going to a "The Good" and "The Bad" but instead I'll just do bullet points of random thoughts.

We have more talent on our roster than at any point since Cliff Ellis.
Almost all of our young guys have showed flashed, not just of competence, but of brilliance.
We've won three true road games for the first time since 2008. We have already exceeded last year's win total.
We sit with an RPI of 72 according to ESPN's daily RPI rankings. That's good for 8th in the SEC. We are also tied for 8th in the SEC at 2-4. We are essentially a game out of 6th (MSST is 3-2 in conference, as they've played a game less than us and Arkansas is 3-3). Finishing in the top half of the SEC would be an excellent accomplishment.
Our overall record of 12-6 isn't bad looking. If we could've held on against Georgia or Ole Miss, and beaten BC, we would have a pretty damn good looking record of 14-4 (3-3). As bad as we've looked at times, we're a few plays away from being a legitimate bubble team.
We are NOT a legitimate bubble team, though. At least not right now. NIT should be the goal. It is a good goal and an achievable goal.
I don't think I've ever seen a team as bad as we are at preventing opponents' from getting offensive rebounds. We aren't a tiny team. We aren't the biggest, but we have big dudes. We just don't box out. Or, more often, it is an issue of two (or even sometimes three) guys going for a block, missing it, and taking themselves out of the play. Blocks are great (and we've had some big ones this year), but contesting and then boxing out might be a better idea.
I've said all season that our bread and butter on offense should be penetrating and trying to draw fouls. We've been at our best when we've done that. Aside from a few games where we've shot really well from 3, our best offensive performances (or spurts during various games) have been when we were aggressively taking the ball to the rim. But for some reason we don't do it consistently. It is bewildering.
Some of our non-conference wins are starting to look better. Texas Tech is a top 50 RPI team and just knocked off a solid TCU team. Oklahoma won AT West Virginia, which is probably one of the better road wins for any team in the country this year. Boston College, who was supposed to be garbage, has an RPI of 165. Nothing to write home about, but getting them inside the top 150 would be nice. Teams like UAB, Georgia St. and Coastal Carolina are improving their RPI a bit by beating the teams in their leagues they should. UConn? TBD.
We have two legitimate threats at PG.
In the three full games we've played without Danjel, we've gone 2-1. The two wins were against bad teams, but losing your best player and winning games (especially one on the road) is wroth noting.

Brief thoughts on each game:

Georgia: Coulda, shoulda, woulda. We looked as good as we have all year for the first 25-30 minutes. Winning that game would've changed the trajectory of our season. We win that one, Vandy turns out differently (maybe a loss, but not a discouraging loss) and so does Ole Miss. Losing that one killed out confidence.
Vandy: Awful effort. Let's forget about it.
Ole Miss: If Danjel doesn't go down, we probably win. We had one of our awful spells offensively, only to launch an impressive rally, scoring 25 points in the last 5 minutes or so. We are feast or famine, and just couldn't quite get it. I liked the effort that game, though.
Mizzou: We won, but that was awful basketball from both teams.
Kentucky: We played much better. Our defensive strategy to force things outside works. Except for the part where UK couldn't miss from 3.
LSU: We won. We did look really good for stretches. I don't know why we have such a problem playing with a double digit lead. This should've been one we won by 20+.

So where do we go from here? Well, we have to win this weekend. Holding serve at home against teams on our level is essential. If we can get to 3-4 in the SEC, I think we need to finish conference play going 4-7 to make the NIT. That is very doable. I'm assuming we lose at TCU, but if we win, that could be a big help. 7-11 in the SEC and a loss to TCU would put us at 17-14 with an RPI probably around the 60s or 70s. It would be close, but I think we get into the NIT with that. Can we get there? Here's how I see it going.

Jan. 21 Alabama 4:00 PM: Win.
Jan. 24 @ South Carolina 6:30 PM: Loss
Jan. 28 @ TCU 6:00 PM: Loss
Jan. 31 Tennessee 9:00 PM: Win
Feb. 4 @ Alabama 8:30 PM: Loss
Feb. 7 Mississippi State 9:00 PM: Win
Feb. 11 @ Ole Miss 6:00 PM: Loss
Feb. 14 Florida 7:00 PM: Loss
Feb. 18 @ Texas A&M 4:00 PM: Loss
Feb. 21 @ LSU 7:00 PM: Win
Feb. 25 Arkansas 8:30 PM: Loss
Mar. 1 @ Georgia 6:30 PM: Loss
Mar. 4 Missouri 3:30 PM: Win

So I do see us getting to 17-14 (7-11), but it isn't a given at all. We don't really have any "absolutely should win" games left on our schedule except for the home game against Mizzou. LSU isn't good, but we only beat them by 4 in our building. MSST is young and talented, and could very well come into Auburn Arena and win, even though we should beat them. On the other hand, TAMU has been underwhelming this year, and we could win at their building. We could also beat Arkansas at home.

I guess what I'm saying is that I really have no freaking clue what we are going to do. We could finish anywhere from 3-15 to 11-7. This team is Jekyll and Hyde, usually for 5-10 minute stretches within a game. If we lock into good play and good decisions and committed defense, we could STILL finish .500 or better in SEC play. Or we could lose this weekend and just crash and burn from there. This is still a team without a definite identity. And it is pretty late in the year for a team to not really know who they are. I think that is partly a product of having so many new and young players. But it is still troubling.

Ser Sweater Vest · Jan 19, 2017