Context matters when taking stock of Auburn’s rushing success during the first two games of the season.
Still, no matter the opponent, 680 rushing yards on 9.6 yards per carry and eight touchdowns is a magnificent start to the Bryan Harsin era.
Tank Bigsby, Shaun Shivers and Jarquez Hunter are all averaging at least 10 yards per carry. Pro Football Focus has graded Auburn’s run offense as the second-best in the country and the run blocking as tied for 12th.
You know what Big Ten team usually is good at running the football between the tackles? Wisconsin. The Badgers entered the season with the nation’s 13th-best offensive line according to Phil Steele.
Penn State didn’t need to respect quarterback Graham Mertz and the Wisconsin passing game. What happened? The Nittany Lions held Wisconsin to 3.1 yards per carry.
The Badgers didn’t give up, rushing 58 times. They managed a lot of first downs but only 10 points.
Auburn is going to win its share of games this season if it continues to run the way it has. But against the strongest opponents – like SP+ No. 7 Penn State on the road – it needs to present a passing threat.
Penn State – 5.5-point home favorites against the Tigers – lost a field full of NFL draft choices in the last two years.
Those picks included linebacker Micah Parsons (first round, No. 13 overall), defensive end Odafe Oweh (first round, No. 31 overall), defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos (second round), cornerback John Reid (fourth round) and three other drafted players.
This isn’t an invincible unit. But it’s a unit that can probably shut down even a very good one-dimensional, run-based offense.
That leads us to Bo Nix. He beat Oregon on national TV in his first start as a true freshman, creating (probably unfair) expectations. Now the Auburn football program has charged Harsin and Mike Bobo with manufacturing the sort of growth in Nix that everyone has been wanting since that first game.
Nix has played eight teams ranked in the top 11 of the AP Top 25 during his career at Auburn. In those eight games, Nix has completed just 52.2 percent of his passes for 5.3 yards per attempt, six touchdowns and nine interceptions. He’s also taken 17 sacks.
Last season, when under pressure, Nix completed just 40.7 percent of his passes according to Pro Football Focus, throwing zero touchdowns and three interceptions on such plays.
Auburn’s Herculean rushing effort against Alabama State papered over the fact that Nix completed just 9 of 17 passes for 6.4 yards per attempt. His receivers didn’t help, dropping too many passes.
Penn State ranks third in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades through two games. Penn State’s defense ranks fifth overall in SP+.
Harsin has a strong track record with quarterbacks.
But for all his imperfections, Gus Malzahn is a “smarter” coach at UCF than he was at Auburn last season because of Dillon Gabriel. UCF’s quarterback has completed 65.8 percent of his passes as the Knights have scored 99 points in two wins.
Harsin and Bobo aren’t magicians. They can present a running threat. They can scheme around Nix’s strengths and limitations. But when Auburn needs to convert a big third down on the road, and Penn State brings pressure, can they transform Nix into a different player?
Auburn’s rushing stats in the first two games would make even the most ardent devotees to EA Sports’ NCAA Football video game series blush. Perhaps the Tigers are so good on the ground that even Penn State, which mostly stoned Wisconsin, won’t be able to contain them.
More likely, the Nittany Lions will play to stop the run, pressure Nix and dare the quarterback to do something he usually hasn’t been able to do: beat a potentially elite defense while defenders buzz around him.
I’m counting on Auburn’s eye-popping final scores in their first two weeks, and optimism that Nix will be much better under Harsin, to inflate the Tigers in the betting market.
Give me Penn State -6 at home.
Still, no matter the opponent, 680 rushing yards on 9.6 yards per carry and eight touchdowns is a magnificent start to the Bryan Harsin era.
Tank Bigsby, Shaun Shivers and Jarquez Hunter are all averaging at least 10 yards per carry. Pro Football Focus has graded Auburn’s run offense as the second-best in the country and the run blocking as tied for 12th.
You know what Big Ten team usually is good at running the football between the tackles? Wisconsin. The Badgers entered the season with the nation’s 13th-best offensive line according to Phil Steele.
Penn State didn’t need to respect quarterback Graham Mertz and the Wisconsin passing game. What happened? The Nittany Lions held Wisconsin to 3.1 yards per carry.
The Badgers didn’t give up, rushing 58 times. They managed a lot of first downs but only 10 points.
Auburn is going to win its share of games this season if it continues to run the way it has. But against the strongest opponents – like SP+ No. 7 Penn State on the road – it needs to present a passing threat.
Penn State – 5.5-point home favorites against the Tigers – lost a field full of NFL draft choices in the last two years.
Those picks included linebacker Micah Parsons (first round, No. 13 overall), defensive end Odafe Oweh (first round, No. 31 overall), defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos (second round), cornerback John Reid (fourth round) and three other drafted players.
This isn’t an invincible unit. But it’s a unit that can probably shut down even a very good one-dimensional, run-based offense.
That leads us to Bo Nix. He beat Oregon on national TV in his first start as a true freshman, creating (probably unfair) expectations. Now the Auburn football program has charged Harsin and Mike Bobo with manufacturing the sort of growth in Nix that everyone has been wanting since that first game.
Nix has played eight teams ranked in the top 11 of the AP Top 25 during his career at Auburn. In those eight games, Nix has completed just 52.2 percent of his passes for 5.3 yards per attempt, six touchdowns and nine interceptions. He’s also taken 17 sacks.
Last season, when under pressure, Nix completed just 40.7 percent of his passes according to Pro Football Focus, throwing zero touchdowns and three interceptions on such plays.
Auburn’s Herculean rushing effort against Alabama State papered over the fact that Nix completed just 9 of 17 passes for 6.4 yards per attempt. His receivers didn’t help, dropping too many passes.
Penn State ranks third in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades through two games. Penn State’s defense ranks fifth overall in SP+.
Harsin has a strong track record with quarterbacks.
But for all his imperfections, Gus Malzahn is a “smarter” coach at UCF than he was at Auburn last season because of Dillon Gabriel. UCF’s quarterback has completed 65.8 percent of his passes as the Knights have scored 99 points in two wins.
Harsin and Bobo aren’t magicians. They can present a running threat. They can scheme around Nix’s strengths and limitations. But when Auburn needs to convert a big third down on the road, and Penn State brings pressure, can they transform Nix into a different player?
Auburn’s rushing stats in the first two games would make even the most ardent devotees to EA Sports’ NCAA Football video game series blush. Perhaps the Tigers are so good on the ground that even Penn State, which mostly stoned Wisconsin, won’t be able to contain them.
More likely, the Nittany Lions will play to stop the run, pressure Nix and dare the quarterback to do something he usually hasn’t been able to do: beat a potentially elite defense while defenders buzz around him.
I’m counting on Auburn’s eye-popping final scores in their first two weeks, and optimism that Nix will be much better under Harsin, to inflate the Tigers in the betting market.
Give me Penn State -6 at home.
