It's easy to look at AU the past two years and say that Gus is on the downhill slope. Yet considering how he started, how could it be any other way? While it's easy to look at the tape from last season and remember how disappointed we all felt as AU dropped game after game against the teams that mattered most, some close, some not so close, it's also easy to overlook the fact that Gus started his head coaching career at Auburn with a 19-3 record.
State of Auburn shirts be damned, the Texas A&M loss or "fumbled snap" game, precipitated a 8-10 slide, with the wins being harrowing nailbiters against the likes of Jacksonville State and Kentucky, spotted with a few solid wins against teams that didn't even finish the season in the top 25.
So understandably so people question Gus, they question the program as many of their beloved assistants who for some warranted, some mystic reasons unknown to mankind believe that "we've lost the only assistants that were any good and kept the ones we wish we were rid of."
While it's true that there's no doubt that Auburn's on field performance has diminished, mostly due to one of two factors, often both in it's worse defeats- 1. Lack of consistent QB play, or 2. A porous defense, particularly against the run. It's also true that both, when looked at through the lens of cold logic, have nowhere to go but to improve this season.
1. Who will play QB and how well they will play QB is of course the larger question at the moment. Gus has been on record numerous times, at least as far back as Tulsa saying, "My offense mostly works or doesn't work based upon the quarterback."
So we look at our options this year to garner our opinion of the offensive crystal ball based upon given quarterback choices. JF3 for the most part seemed to have underwhelmed in spring practice, but one can't deny that he gives a set of physical tools that we have lacked and for the most part are in need of if we're to become a better team. Perhaps it isn't fair to duly judge him just yet, as has been seen before, some players are gamers, and some are practice warriors, which leads to Jeremy Johnson.
Any NFL scout who would visit an Auburn practice would probably come away with the impression that "Jeremy Johnson has first round NFL talent." Whether by poor play design or just lack of on field confidence however, Johnson's head wasn't on right last season. It's hard to express with much confidence that he will be anything close to what he's capable of on the field but there's still a chance that he could some how, some way become the resurrected avenger of justice on the field this fall. Some of you may remember a time when a certain QB named Ben Leard had a terrible season, only to come back the next year and utterly surprise everyone. It does happen.
Next we are faced with the question of Sean White. Whether he lives in a cloudy haze or not, White has shown at times what you want from a QB. Bravado, short memory, ability to sling it around to wherever the ball needs to go. He also had to play with his ankle inside his knee by the end of last season and was nowhere close to 100% by the end of the year. All things considered when White is healthy he's a solid "albeit not mindblowing" talent with the football. He's not going to outrun defenders, but if he has room to run he can get the first down, and he's not going to throw laser guided missiles but he can throw the ball on point and on time.
Lastly you have Woody Barrett, Tyler Queen, and the walkon guy I can't remember, but let's all just accept that if it gets to that point we're in trouble anyways.
All things considered though, I would have rated Auburn's QB performance a generous D last season. This season considering the added pieces, extra experience, and improved health I think it's safe to guess Auburn's quarterback play this year to be at least C level.
Which may be all that Auburn needs to have a successful season if......
2. How will the Auburn defense perform?
Most of last season we were treated to tormenting thoughts while Brandon Allen or whatever opposing QB sat in the pocket for 10+ seconds tempting us all to really consider the idea of taking a bathroom break at the start of the opposing team's snap on obvious passing downs. Why that was? An MIA Carl Lawson and no one else to really pick up the slack.
Bad news for Auburn's opponents this year? Carl is healthy and well (just ask Paxton Lynch), and even worse news? There are probably about four-five linemen who are all too willing, healthy, and hungry to take up the slack. Word on the beat is Marlon Davidson is a newly arrived Genghis Khan, his dominion on the right side will be solid for many years to come. Montravious Adams is hungry...quite literally as he's been skipping his favorite rotel dip in order to be quicker off the snap. Devonte Lambert is healthy as well, and if the weight chart is to believed put on even more pounds. That's not to mention Jeff Holland, Byron Cowart, Derrick Brown, Paul James, and all of the other parts of what will most likely be recognized as being such a wall of defensive brute force that Donald Trump would probably want to make some sort of analogy to it after watching them. (we hope).
T.J. Neal and Tre Williams should have plenty to feast on, as should the other AU linebackers, which while not a strength by any means, should be recognized as being a "safe" group to rely upon behind such a formidable front to stack up tackles.
Carlton Davis returns as nothing less than a lockdown corner on one side, the other secondary positions filled with now healthy veterans (welcome back Josh Holsey, Tray Matthews), and the ever reliable Rudy Ford.
As Will Muschamp said, "I'm just glad we don't have them on our schedule this year."
I have no qualms about upgrading this unit from a C to a B at the least, with the possibility to garner an A by seasons end, but that has to be earned.
All of the other positions should stay static or in some cases improved H-back, tight end, even receiver with the studs coming in. So, in other words "logically, there should be improvement, across the board, in all areas.".
Thankfully, Jay Jacobs in his infinite wisdom in realizing that AU needed a bounce back year, scheduled us the most difficult schedule in the country.
The good news if there is any is that AU starts off with five games in a row at home. Also good news is that many of the teams that spiked AU's wheel last year have lost a lot of guys and are in rebuilding mode.
Schedule
Clemson Auburn, Ala. -Clemson is replacing a lot of pieces, and starting an away game at AU is probably not the best way to start the season. If AU's defense can play up to their ability, I can see Deshaun Watson having problems. So let's put that game as a tossup, as it still needs to be reminded...that yes they have Deshaun Watson and we don't know who our quarterback is.
Arkansas State Auburn, Ala. -If we can't win this one the rest of this is moot, expect no problems here.
Texas A&M Auburn, Ala.-Beat handily last year, still have better talent, and at home, expect the win.
LSU Auburn, Ala. -Fournette is there but this year he will have to run against a healthy solid defensive line. Otherwise LSU is much like AU, although they've lost a lot of other pieces. I see AU probably winning it but for homer's sake lets keep this one at a tossup as well.
Louisiana-Monroe * Auburn, Ala. -See Arky State.
Mississippi State Starkville, Miss.- MSU has been an achilles heel for Gus, but this year without Dak Prescott and a few other pieces I like our chances to get them.
Arkansas Auburn, Ala. -Should have been a win very easily last year, and this year with our expected improvement which we've logically expounded upon above there's no reason for us not to beat them at home.
Ole Miss Oxford, Miss. -We talked earlier about "teams losing a lot of pieces". Ole Miss is in an investigative hailstorm amidst the departure of many key defensive players and receivers to the NFL. Talent wise, we should have the edge here in a game that we could have easily won last year against the best semipro team in football, so I'm giving us the W.
Vanderbilt Auburn, Ala. -I like their coach and I wouldn't be surprised to see them scare us, in the end we will have two things that should play to our advantage in upset games- a defense and the best placekicker in football.
Georgia Athens, Ga. -Should have easily been won last year. Another team that has lost more pieces, and I expect if AU plays it it's ability will win.
Alabama A&M Auburn, Ala. -We better.
Alabama Tuscaloosa, Ala. -It wouldn't surprise me to at seasons end be playing for control the SEC West. Alabama is again "one of those teams that have lost a lot of pieces," yet that can be said of Alabama after every season and it always seems like they find the pieces they need. I'm making this another tossup, although I would probably lean Bama.
9 wins, 3 tossups. 10-2 would be my guess all things considered. although 11-1 is actually possible I think. It's worth noting that AU should improve at every position, barring perhaps offensive line, whereas most other SEC schools are replenishing their biggest stars, and are in rebuilding mode. The SEC writers have picked us to finish sixth. Most believe it is a foregone conclusion that Gus is gone. Yet, if history has shown us anything, AU is the team that gets overlooked and then proves they shouldn't of been on the field.
State of Auburn shirts be damned, the Texas A&M loss or "fumbled snap" game, precipitated a 8-10 slide, with the wins being harrowing nailbiters against the likes of Jacksonville State and Kentucky, spotted with a few solid wins against teams that didn't even finish the season in the top 25.
So understandably so people question Gus, they question the program as many of their beloved assistants who for some warranted, some mystic reasons unknown to mankind believe that "we've lost the only assistants that were any good and kept the ones we wish we were rid of."
While it's true that there's no doubt that Auburn's on field performance has diminished, mostly due to one of two factors, often both in it's worse defeats- 1. Lack of consistent QB play, or 2. A porous defense, particularly against the run. It's also true that both, when looked at through the lens of cold logic, have nowhere to go but to improve this season.
1. Who will play QB and how well they will play QB is of course the larger question at the moment. Gus has been on record numerous times, at least as far back as Tulsa saying, "My offense mostly works or doesn't work based upon the quarterback."
So we look at our options this year to garner our opinion of the offensive crystal ball based upon given quarterback choices. JF3 for the most part seemed to have underwhelmed in spring practice, but one can't deny that he gives a set of physical tools that we have lacked and for the most part are in need of if we're to become a better team. Perhaps it isn't fair to duly judge him just yet, as has been seen before, some players are gamers, and some are practice warriors, which leads to Jeremy Johnson.
Any NFL scout who would visit an Auburn practice would probably come away with the impression that "Jeremy Johnson has first round NFL talent." Whether by poor play design or just lack of on field confidence however, Johnson's head wasn't on right last season. It's hard to express with much confidence that he will be anything close to what he's capable of on the field but there's still a chance that he could some how, some way become the resurrected avenger of justice on the field this fall. Some of you may remember a time when a certain QB named Ben Leard had a terrible season, only to come back the next year and utterly surprise everyone. It does happen.
Next we are faced with the question of Sean White. Whether he lives in a cloudy haze or not, White has shown at times what you want from a QB. Bravado, short memory, ability to sling it around to wherever the ball needs to go. He also had to play with his ankle inside his knee by the end of last season and was nowhere close to 100% by the end of the year. All things considered when White is healthy he's a solid "albeit not mindblowing" talent with the football. He's not going to outrun defenders, but if he has room to run he can get the first down, and he's not going to throw laser guided missiles but he can throw the ball on point and on time.
Lastly you have Woody Barrett, Tyler Queen, and the walkon guy I can't remember, but let's all just accept that if it gets to that point we're in trouble anyways.
All things considered though, I would have rated Auburn's QB performance a generous D last season. This season considering the added pieces, extra experience, and improved health I think it's safe to guess Auburn's quarterback play this year to be at least C level.
Which may be all that Auburn needs to have a successful season if......
2. How will the Auburn defense perform?
Most of last season we were treated to tormenting thoughts while Brandon Allen or whatever opposing QB sat in the pocket for 10+ seconds tempting us all to really consider the idea of taking a bathroom break at the start of the opposing team's snap on obvious passing downs. Why that was? An MIA Carl Lawson and no one else to really pick up the slack.
Bad news for Auburn's opponents this year? Carl is healthy and well (just ask Paxton Lynch), and even worse news? There are probably about four-five linemen who are all too willing, healthy, and hungry to take up the slack. Word on the beat is Marlon Davidson is a newly arrived Genghis Khan, his dominion on the right side will be solid for many years to come. Montravious Adams is hungry...quite literally as he's been skipping his favorite rotel dip in order to be quicker off the snap. Devonte Lambert is healthy as well, and if the weight chart is to believed put on even more pounds. That's not to mention Jeff Holland, Byron Cowart, Derrick Brown, Paul James, and all of the other parts of what will most likely be recognized as being such a wall of defensive brute force that Donald Trump would probably want to make some sort of analogy to it after watching them. (we hope).
T.J. Neal and Tre Williams should have plenty to feast on, as should the other AU linebackers, which while not a strength by any means, should be recognized as being a "safe" group to rely upon behind such a formidable front to stack up tackles.
Carlton Davis returns as nothing less than a lockdown corner on one side, the other secondary positions filled with now healthy veterans (welcome back Josh Holsey, Tray Matthews), and the ever reliable Rudy Ford.
As Will Muschamp said, "I'm just glad we don't have them on our schedule this year."
I have no qualms about upgrading this unit from a C to a B at the least, with the possibility to garner an A by seasons end, but that has to be earned.
All of the other positions should stay static or in some cases improved H-back, tight end, even receiver with the studs coming in. So, in other words "logically, there should be improvement, across the board, in all areas.".
Thankfully, Jay Jacobs in his infinite wisdom in realizing that AU needed a bounce back year, scheduled us the most difficult schedule in the country.
The good news if there is any is that AU starts off with five games in a row at home. Also good news is that many of the teams that spiked AU's wheel last year have lost a lot of guys and are in rebuilding mode.
Schedule
Clemson Auburn, Ala. -Clemson is replacing a lot of pieces, and starting an away game at AU is probably not the best way to start the season. If AU's defense can play up to their ability, I can see Deshaun Watson having problems. So let's put that game as a tossup, as it still needs to be reminded...that yes they have Deshaun Watson and we don't know who our quarterback is.
Arkansas State Auburn, Ala. -If we can't win this one the rest of this is moot, expect no problems here.
Texas A&M Auburn, Ala.-Beat handily last year, still have better talent, and at home, expect the win.
LSU Auburn, Ala. -Fournette is there but this year he will have to run against a healthy solid defensive line. Otherwise LSU is much like AU, although they've lost a lot of other pieces. I see AU probably winning it but for homer's sake lets keep this one at a tossup as well.
Louisiana-Monroe * Auburn, Ala. -See Arky State.
Mississippi State Starkville, Miss.- MSU has been an achilles heel for Gus, but this year without Dak Prescott and a few other pieces I like our chances to get them.
Arkansas Auburn, Ala. -Should have been a win very easily last year, and this year with our expected improvement which we've logically expounded upon above there's no reason for us not to beat them at home.
Ole Miss Oxford, Miss. -We talked earlier about "teams losing a lot of pieces". Ole Miss is in an investigative hailstorm amidst the departure of many key defensive players and receivers to the NFL. Talent wise, we should have the edge here in a game that we could have easily won last year against the best semipro team in football, so I'm giving us the W.
Vanderbilt Auburn, Ala. -I like their coach and I wouldn't be surprised to see them scare us, in the end we will have two things that should play to our advantage in upset games- a defense and the best placekicker in football.
Georgia Athens, Ga. -Should have easily been won last year. Another team that has lost more pieces, and I expect if AU plays it it's ability will win.
Alabama A&M Auburn, Ala. -We better.
Alabama Tuscaloosa, Ala. -It wouldn't surprise me to at seasons end be playing for control the SEC West. Alabama is again "one of those teams that have lost a lot of pieces," yet that can be said of Alabama after every season and it always seems like they find the pieces they need. I'm making this another tossup, although I would probably lean Bama.
9 wins, 3 tossups. 10-2 would be my guess all things considered. although 11-1 is actually possible I think. It's worth noting that AU should improve at every position, barring perhaps offensive line, whereas most other SEC schools are replenishing their biggest stars, and are in rebuilding mode. The SEC writers have picked us to finish sixth. Most believe it is a foregone conclusion that Gus is gone. Yet, if history has shown us anything, AU is the team that gets overlooked and then proves they shouldn't of been on the field.
