*Note, these are all P5 only, and I throw out drives at the end of halves where a team kneels to run out the clock.
And - it's just trends - fun to look at, but don't take it too seriously. Math and teenagers often don't align.
Trends:
AU’s 5 keys to win:
1) Rush for more than 120 yards. Arky is 0-5 when that happens. AU has rushed for more than 120 every game this season.
2) Hold Arky to under 27 pts. AU is 5-0 when holding opponents under 27 pts, and 0-4 otherwise.
3) Hold Arky below 170 passing yards. AU is 5-0 when holding opponents below 170 yards passing, and 0-4 otherwise.
4) Hold Arky below 200 rushing yards. AU is 5-1 when that happens, 0-3 otherwise.
5) Be ahead of Arky going into the 4th. Despite losing most of their games, Arky outscores their P5 opponents by just under 3 points/game in the 4th, and they’ve scored in the 4th of every P5 game except MSU. Look for them to have a 10 point 4th quarter, regardless of what we score.
I think 1, 2, and 4 are almost a given. 5 makes me nervous.
I’ll call it 23-20 AU, but there are a lot of variables in this one so it's not a high confidence prediction.
And - it's just trends - fun to look at, but don't take it too seriously. Math and teenagers often don't align.
Trends:
- Vandy game continued the trend of giving up 40+ yards on the first drive. We gave up 40 on the nose to them - look for an early Arky drive and likely score.
- Really, it's the first 3 drives of the first half that have been bad. In the first half, we've given up 50 pts in the first 3 drives, and 13 pts total for the rest of the first half. We need to hold them to FGs or better in the early drives.
- The defense does not play well in the 2nd half, this is partly just Auburn wearing down in the front 6 as we don't have depth. Average 2nd half drive gives up 39 yards and 3 points, and 6+ plays/drive. It's actually fairly consistent the entire half. It’s not like the 4th quarter is worse. We just struggle in the 2nd half. Even Vandy had success late, their first 9 drives yielded only 90 yards (even with 40 on the first one). The last 3 gave up 133 yards.
AU’s 5 keys to win:
1) Rush for more than 120 yards. Arky is 0-5 when that happens. AU has rushed for more than 120 every game this season.
2) Hold Arky to under 27 pts. AU is 5-0 when holding opponents under 27 pts, and 0-4 otherwise.
3) Hold Arky below 170 passing yards. AU is 5-0 when holding opponents below 170 yards passing, and 0-4 otherwise.
4) Hold Arky below 200 rushing yards. AU is 5-1 when that happens, 0-3 otherwise.
5) Be ahead of Arky going into the 4th. Despite losing most of their games, Arky outscores their P5 opponents by just under 3 points/game in the 4th, and they’ve scored in the 4th of every P5 game except MSU. Look for them to have a 10 point 4th quarter, regardless of what we score.
I think 1, 2, and 4 are almost a given. 5 makes me nervous.
I’ll call it 23-20 AU, but there are a lot of variables in this one so it's not a high confidence prediction.
