(Info via action network subscription that I use bc im a degenerate)
Will update this daily.
SUNDAY UPDATE:
Line opened at +7 in most books. Some opened at +5.
Line seeming to stabilize at +6 tonight.
Some big whales on auburn early.
sharp bettors also on auburn early.
51% of bets on auburn and 87% of money on AU as of Sunday night at 10pm Pacific Time (For all my LA homies).
MONDAY UPDATE:
Money and bets are flowing in on Penn state, Auburn now has 47% of bets and 52% of the $.
Despite this, the line is tightening from 6.5 to 6 (most books) to 5.5 on some books.
Auburn is still getting the sharps signal from professional bettors on action network.
Sharps usually bet early and late. I think due to the amount of money that came in early on Auburn, books are anticipating money coming in late on Auburn as well. Looking at the technicals, this line looks like it still has room to drop.
If you are betting on Auburn I'd take the +6.5 or +190 moneyline, i think that is the best you will get it at. Should be lots of action though as this game is being heavily bet.
TUESDAY UPDATE:
Monday was a choppy day a lot of money came in on Penn St. at one point giving them a bet-money % ratio of +16%. and they had over 60% of the money on them. By this afternoon around 1:30 EST this has done a complete 180. Money has been primarily flowing in on Auburn, now with 58% of bets and 55% of the money. Line is staying firmly at +6 with the short swings from side to side still leaving us in the 40-60% range for both teams at a point in time.
Think this will stay here at +6 til at least Thursday when publications and groups put out picks for the weekends that can impact lines.
THURSDAY UPDATE:
Line is up from +5 to +5.5 as more money is coming in on Penn State on Thursday. A lot of the publishers who make picks, have all picked Penn State. Auburn still has 54% of the money on them with 47% of the bets. Moneyline has 88% of the money on Auburn on only 68% of the bets. So that might be taking away from the spread some, in that people who like Auburn may be taking them straight up.
FRIDAY UPDATE:
Interesting movement this morning and today. Money is flowing in on Penn St. to finally even and more - the money is at 51%. Auburn has 43% of bets and 49% of the money as of Friday at 1PM EST. The interesting part though is the movement of the line after money has lifted Penn St. to even money status. Despite the increase, the line has dropped to +5 in most books, and now fluctuating between +4.5 and +5, hourly. This is interesting knowing that money is even, yet the line has dropped 2-2.5 points from open, and continuing to go down. Some books have flashed +4 recently at some points in time.
What this all means?: Winning bettors come in early or late, there is still a lot of late cash on the sideline. With the line continuing to drop to a tighter split, this still signals to me Books are expecting late money to come in on Auburn. Moving lines is an imperfect science, but these oddsmakers either really like Auburn or they keep steaming the line in that direction because they are anticipating more money to come on a side. I personally think it's the latter. I think Vegas wants to try and keep this game as close to even money as possible, due to a lot of uncertainties. Saturday will be another interesting day, I think we are now going to see the line close at +4.5 to +4 at kick. I don't think it can get to lower than +4. I think Vegas views this as a close 3-4 point game either way. It is obvious whether it's Vegas or professional bettors, someone likes Auburn.
Will update this daily.
SUNDAY UPDATE:
Line opened at +7 in most books. Some opened at +5.
Line seeming to stabilize at +6 tonight.
Some big whales on auburn early.
sharp bettors also on auburn early.
51% of bets on auburn and 87% of money on AU as of Sunday night at 10pm Pacific Time (For all my LA homies).
MONDAY UPDATE:
Money and bets are flowing in on Penn state, Auburn now has 47% of bets and 52% of the $.
Despite this, the line is tightening from 6.5 to 6 (most books) to 5.5 on some books.
Auburn is still getting the sharps signal from professional bettors on action network.
Sharps usually bet early and late. I think due to the amount of money that came in early on Auburn, books are anticipating money coming in late on Auburn as well. Looking at the technicals, this line looks like it still has room to drop.
If you are betting on Auburn I'd take the +6.5 or +190 moneyline, i think that is the best you will get it at. Should be lots of action though as this game is being heavily bet.
TUESDAY UPDATE:
Monday was a choppy day a lot of money came in on Penn St. at one point giving them a bet-money % ratio of +16%. and they had over 60% of the money on them. By this afternoon around 1:30 EST this has done a complete 180. Money has been primarily flowing in on Auburn, now with 58% of bets and 55% of the money. Line is staying firmly at +6 with the short swings from side to side still leaving us in the 40-60% range for both teams at a point in time.
Think this will stay here at +6 til at least Thursday when publications and groups put out picks for the weekends that can impact lines.
THURSDAY UPDATE:
Line is up from +5 to +5.5 as more money is coming in on Penn State on Thursday. A lot of the publishers who make picks, have all picked Penn State. Auburn still has 54% of the money on them with 47% of the bets. Moneyline has 88% of the money on Auburn on only 68% of the bets. So that might be taking away from the spread some, in that people who like Auburn may be taking them straight up.
FRIDAY UPDATE:
Interesting movement this morning and today. Money is flowing in on Penn St. to finally even and more - the money is at 51%. Auburn has 43% of bets and 49% of the money as of Friday at 1PM EST. The interesting part though is the movement of the line after money has lifted Penn St. to even money status. Despite the increase, the line has dropped to +5 in most books, and now fluctuating between +4.5 and +5, hourly. This is interesting knowing that money is even, yet the line has dropped 2-2.5 points from open, and continuing to go down. Some books have flashed +4 recently at some points in time.
What this all means?: Winning bettors come in early or late, there is still a lot of late cash on the sideline. With the line continuing to drop to a tighter split, this still signals to me Books are expecting late money to come in on Auburn. Moving lines is an imperfect science, but these oddsmakers either really like Auburn or they keep steaming the line in that direction because they are anticipating more money to come on a side. I personally think it's the latter. I think Vegas wants to try and keep this game as close to even money as possible, due to a lot of uncertainties. Saturday will be another interesting day, I think we are now going to see the line close at +4.5 to +4 at kick. I don't think it can get to lower than +4. I think Vegas views this as a close 3-4 point game either way. It is obvious whether it's Vegas or professional bettors, someone likes Auburn.
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