1. Arkansas DBs vs AU WRs
One starter out (Jaylon Braxton), one backup FS is out (Hudson Clark) so Arkansas will start these 2 guys at CB. Kee’yon Stewart – 6th year Sr. Never graded above 65 or below 52. So he’s a below average starter. He’s their best CB. Marquise Robinson – Sr, also never graded above 65 in 3 years there. This year he’s at a 59. So neither CB is very good. They’re not horrible, but they’re both meh. If we’re running Cam Coleman and KLS against them, we’ll win more routes than we lose. If Stewart commits to Cam, he’s going to struggle, and Braxton will struggle more against KLS. Got to go over the top a couple of times and push the back 7 a yard or 2 deeper.
2. AU running game vs. Arkansas front 7
Arkansas stuffed Ok State’s rushing game, which would concern me. But Arkansas is not the only team to stuff their rushing game. Tulsa and South Dakota State also stuffed the OSU running game. OSU rushed for 129 vs Tulsa and 124 vs SDSU. Never more than 4.4 YPC. I think Arkansas's rush D rating is a red herring. Not saying we’ll stroll them, but it’s not the brick wall defense that the early season stats imply. I think we rush for 150.
3, Arky rushing game vs AU front 7
Auburn is 31st vs. the run at 97 YPG. The strategy vs NM was BBDB, and it yielded 6 YPC, which is not great. Arky has put up gaudy rushing numbers, but vs 3 team that suck vs. the run. This one is an unknown. They could Fred Talley us. Or we could shut them down. They’ve not played anyone close to Auburn’s defensive level. We’ve not played anyone close to their rushing level. This one is TBD, but I think they rush for 150 (like us).
What does it all mean, Basil?
I feel good about AU moving the ball, but #1 and #2 both have to be there for that to happen. I think it will. #3 – I tend to think Arkansas is going to run the ball well on us. There’s more evidence that they are good, then there is evidence that our Run D is good.
If I had to guess, I see us giving up a score on TO, them getting more yards but not scoring as efficiently, and their defense (which is not deep at all) running out of gas in the 4th. If we start the 4th up, we win by double digits. If we start the 4th tied or behind, we win by 3. We should win teh 4th quarter, so we really just need to hold serve until then. I kinda think we will trail going into the 4th.
This one is really hard to predict, but I’ll call it as Auburn 27, Arky 24 – but this could easily swing 10 points either way.
One starter out (Jaylon Braxton), one backup FS is out (Hudson Clark) so Arkansas will start these 2 guys at CB. Kee’yon Stewart – 6th year Sr. Never graded above 65 or below 52. So he’s a below average starter. He’s their best CB. Marquise Robinson – Sr, also never graded above 65 in 3 years there. This year he’s at a 59. So neither CB is very good. They’re not horrible, but they’re both meh. If we’re running Cam Coleman and KLS against them, we’ll win more routes than we lose. If Stewart commits to Cam, he’s going to struggle, and Braxton will struggle more against KLS. Got to go over the top a couple of times and push the back 7 a yard or 2 deeper.
2. AU running game vs. Arkansas front 7
Arkansas stuffed Ok State’s rushing game, which would concern me. But Arkansas is not the only team to stuff their rushing game. Tulsa and South Dakota State also stuffed the OSU running game. OSU rushed for 129 vs Tulsa and 124 vs SDSU. Never more than 4.4 YPC. I think Arkansas's rush D rating is a red herring. Not saying we’ll stroll them, but it’s not the brick wall defense that the early season stats imply. I think we rush for 150.
3, Arky rushing game vs AU front 7
Auburn is 31st vs. the run at 97 YPG. The strategy vs NM was BBDB, and it yielded 6 YPC, which is not great. Arky has put up gaudy rushing numbers, but vs 3 team that suck vs. the run. This one is an unknown. They could Fred Talley us. Or we could shut them down. They’ve not played anyone close to Auburn’s defensive level. We’ve not played anyone close to their rushing level. This one is TBD, but I think they rush for 150 (like us).
What does it all mean, Basil?
I feel good about AU moving the ball, but #1 and #2 both have to be there for that to happen. I think it will. #3 – I tend to think Arkansas is going to run the ball well on us. There’s more evidence that they are good, then there is evidence that our Run D is good.
If I had to guess, I see us giving up a score on TO, them getting more yards but not scoring as efficiently, and their defense (which is not deep at all) running out of gas in the 4th. If we start the 4th up, we win by double digits. If we start the 4th tied or behind, we win by 3. We should win teh 4th quarter, so we really just need to hold serve until then. I kinda think we will trail going into the 4th.
This one is really hard to predict, but I’ll call it as Auburn 27, Arky 24 – but this could easily swing 10 points either way.
