This dude locknload03 usually has great stats breakdown of the past champions for however so long and updates its prior to the tournament. its usually really helpful in filling out brackets so i keep tabs on it
heres his stuff from 2023
Champions Benchmarks
34/37 have been pre season top 25
33/37 have had 4+ players score 8 PPG
34/37 have had their leading scorer at 14+ PPG
36/37 have had a .500+ True Road Record
31/37 have won either their Reg/Tournament Title
18/20 have had 5+ Top 100 recruits
33/36 have won 30+ games
34/36 have lost less than 10 games
33/35 have shot +34% from 3
37/37 have won at least one conference tournament game
37/37 have entered the tournament .500 or better in their last ten games
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Dug into this data a bit, have some thoughts to add. Because UConn's 2014 championship run was such a clear outlier, excluding them from the data sample rather than having to keep repeating "expect UConn"
While this does feel like an outlier year where these trends are less likely to hold, among the top 4-6 seeds who are also top 25 in KenPom, here are some RED FLAGS:
Below that you get teams like SDSU (64th AdjD), Baylor (104th AdjD) and Xavier (70th AdjD), and a lot of 8+ seeds with 10+ losses
Based on review of data, IMO the most likely champions are (in this order):
Final Four benchmarks
usually final four reaches 6 out of 10. the stat with least correlation is probably head coach to elite 8
tldr: Where auburns at
benchmarks that need improvement :
- at least 34% 3pt shooting
- defending without fouling (actually worse than 3pt problem right now)
-above >500 on the road the rest of the way (3 of ole miss, florida, georgia, UTk, mizzou)
- win one conference tourny game
- this is the 10 game stretch. have to go 6-4 at least
heres his stuff from 2023
Champions Benchmarks
34/37 have been pre season top 25
33/37 have had 4+ players score 8 PPG
34/37 have had their leading scorer at 14+ PPG
36/37 have had a .500+ True Road Record
31/37 have won either their Reg/Tournament Title
18/20 have had 5+ Top 100 recruits
33/36 have won 30+ games
34/36 have lost less than 10 games
33/35 have shot +34% from 3
37/37 have won at least one conference tournament game
37/37 have entered the tournament .500 or better in their last ten games
--------
Dug into this data a bit, have some thoughts to add. Because UConn's 2014 championship run was such a clear outlier, excluding them from the data sample rather than having to keep repeating "expect UConn"
- All but 2 champs entered the tourney in top 6 at KP, and all but one at least top 20 (2011 UConn)
- All champs were at least a 3 seed, and 14/19 were 1 seeds, including 8 of last 9
- 13/19 Champs were top 6 in AdjO, and of the 6 that weren't, 3 were top 7 in AdjD (2003 Cuse, 2006 UF & 2011 UConn were neither)
- 3 of past 4 and 4 of last 7 champs failed the Opp 2pt% <47% test, though only one at over 48.1% (2018 Nova 49.3%)
- 4 of past 8 champs failed the Opp FT Rate <31% test, though again just barely, with only 2013 Lousville above 31.7%
- 3 of past 7 champs failed the Off Reb% >90th test, though two of those were small-ball Villanova (157th and 145th), while 2019 UVA was 110th
While this does feel like an outlier year where these trends are less likely to hold, among the top 4-6 seeds who are also top 25 in KenPom, here are some RED FLAGS:
- 1 Houston - their 35.8% Opp FT rate is not only outside the threshold, but higher than any previous champ by 2%
- 2 UCLA - their current 25th rank AdjO would be the highest except 2014 UConn but also spouting #1 AdjD
- 3 Alabama - 3pt % and Opp FT% miss the mark, but not as far off as other top teams
- 4 UConn - A 38.9% Opp FT rate is nearly the worst in the entire tournament field
- 5 Texas - 34.5% Opp FT Rate not as bad as others, but also rank 214th in Off Rebounding
- 6 Tenn - 49th in AdjO and only 32.9% from 3pt
- 7 Purdue - just barely miss Opp 2pt%, but their 32.6% 3pt shooting is basically the worst among contenders, well below 35% threshold
- 8 Gonzaga - 76th in AdjD, well outside norm, and giving up over 51% on Opp 2pt%
- 9 Kansas - Just barely misses a lot of thresholds, but 29th in AdjO and 212th in Off Reb % are most concerning
- 10 Arizona - 41st in AdjD but 4th in AdjO, and just outside Off Reb at 110th
- 11 St Marys - 40th in AdjO, but check all other boxes except coaching
- 12 Marquette - 47th in AdjD, but 260th in Off Reb% and give up 50% on Opp 2pt
- 13 Creighton - Only 28th AdjO/15th AdjD, and 285th in Off Reb%
Below that you get teams like SDSU (64th AdjD), Baylor (104th AdjD) and Xavier (70th AdjD), and a lot of 8+ seeds with 10+ losses
Based on review of data, IMO the most likely champions are (in this order):
- Alabama - fits the profile of more defensive champions like Lousville in 2013 and Nova in 2016, but coach does not have E8+ experience
- UCLA - On Paper, they have a good shot, but a significant injury may mean they may not quite be that team anymore
- Arizona - quietly checking most of the the boxes - including Top 6 AdjO, barely missing on a few others, and lack coach with E8 experience
- Houston - the Opp FT% is a major flag among this group, but really the only one they have besides barely missing the 3PT% threshold
- Purdue - like Houston, have one glaring issue (3pt%), but strong enough all around to warrant consideration
- UConn - not even a 3 seed, same issue as Houston but much worse
Final Four benchmarks
usually final four reaches 6 out of 10. the stat with least correlation is probably head coach to elite 8
tldr: Where auburns at
benchmarks that need improvement :
- at least 34% 3pt shooting
- defending without fouling (actually worse than 3pt problem right now)
-above >500 on the road the rest of the way (3 of ole miss, florida, georgia, UTk, mizzou)
- win one conference tourny game
- this is the 10 game stretch. have to go 6-4 at least
