HISTORICAL 2 SEED matchups
-main things to look for here are teams from multi bid Conference in top 10 adj0 or adjD OR Top 20 in overall efficiency. These teams are 7-7 against #1 or #2 seeds since 2008
-also #1 or #2 seeds with adjD outside the top 20, they are 15-9. #1 or #2 seeds with AdjD inside the top20 are 47-8 (only gonzaga, baylor, and auburn have adjD inside the top 20 this year for 1 and 2 seeds)
-teams from singlebid conferences who fit that same profile are 1-7 vs 2seeds
-teams outside the profile completely are 12-62
we look good from this perspective
now, onto the USC preview:
How they matchup with auburn
1.) Do they protect the paint (2PT% DEFENSE)
they defend the paint very well, one of the best in the country at defense for close 2pters. one thing USC does really well is "blocking by committee". they have a very long lineup and 3 players will sink in and defend the rim consistently
#2 in the country at 2 point defense overall, most of that coming from close 2s (layups) while being mediocre against dunks and far 2s.
this is a definite advantage to USC.
stats over the past 10 games^
USC hasnt been playing well lately but their defense hasnt really slipped. you can see their weaknesses here are 3pointers, turnover margin, defensive rebounding, and 2pt%. also a very slow team. main takeaway is that 2pt% defense is still a behemoth
they get even better away from home, top 20 in efficiency playing on away or neutral sites. also they get a lot of offensive boards which has been one of our weaknesses late in the season.
against top 100^ . not much changes here. they do get more foul calls against better teams. still their defense in the paint is very good.
2.) FRONT COURT PERSONNEL
another auburn weakness = phsyical front court with good defenders
just looking at the size, USC is a very long team at eveyr position. no one really stands out in "blocking" per se besides joshua morgan (only gets 28% minutes per game) but USC does it by committee with a trio who pack the paint most of the time (being mobley + peterson + one of goodwin/agbonkpolo). contrasting auburns style of funneling players towards 1 guy in walker kessler.
Tried to highlight what stands out among the starters, but there isnto too much. most of their bigs are very good at rebounding and not turning it over. they have a great stretch 43pt shooter but he doesnt shoot it a whole ton. the backup center is a great shot blocker but only plays about 10min per game. not a lot of weaknesses or strenghts among the entire roster.
Lots of length/ physical paint protectors. another clear advantage to USC here IMO
3.) can USC draw fouls?
one of the other weaknesses auburn has is foul trouble, especially in games theyve lost this year
USC typically isnt great at drawing fouls but against top 100 opponents they get much better
overall id say this is a wash though
4.) Can USC take care of the ball
the other weakness i mentioned in yesterdays thread is when auburn has trouble forcing turnovers/getting in transition games become more difficult
this is where i think auburn has the clear advantage. USC has been mediocre over the season. not good but not bad. over the past 10 games tho USC has been awful at turning over the ball. mainly cause they dont have a true PG. boogie ellis (transfer from memphis) is decent but not elite as a ball handler. seems more like a SG pushed into the role as PG.
advantage auburn
5.) is USC a good offensive rebounding team
yes
OVERALL: i think USC matches up well with auburns weaknesses. would be a tough but not insurmountable matchup. we could not have an off day and make it to the sweet 16
USC Weaknesses
one of the main problems I have looking at USC is they havent played ayone exceptional except in the pac12 and maybe one or two legit games
noncon strenght of schedule at 274, overall at 75. kind of inflated by the pac12 teams
marked their worst games here. they havent been playing great th epast 10 games but you can see why based on opponent 3 pointers. LOTS of red there. USC will let you shoot 3s and if you make em youll likely win the game. only team to really attack the paint against USC was title contender arizona and oregon st who took the trojans to OT. if you can find success (UNLIKELY) against USC in the paint you can do damage
noticeable trends = not a lotta fouling on defense, USC does not turn people over at all. think auburn has the clear advantage in the turnover aspect. USC's offensive rebounding has been dipping lately. had a good game vs arizona and then a bad game vs ucla, everything else is kinda chalk recently. USC's worst most recent games (oregon st, arizona) the opponents weere extremely efficient shooting the ball.
all in all i dont really like the matchup with USC, their strengths/weaknesses dont align well and it'd be a tough matchup. would like to avoid them if possible
let me know if yall got anything else @Mr_Bandoliers @Rejects @Barnballer
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