WHERE AUBURN SITS:
3 teams got 8/10 last season: UCLA (S16), Houston(S16), Purdue(R64). UCONN had 7/10 (no RS/CT title)
this year these team have 8/10: houston, uconn, purdue, tennessee, unc, creighton, auburn, duke
wayyyyy more competitors. should get interesting
fouling on defense is biggest flaw right now for auburn
aden fell just below 8ppg now (7.8). have to win at least one conference tournament game which auburn hasnt done since 2019 @DavistonTiger
although auburs offense has been lacking somewhat, since feb 18th auburn has the #1 adjusted offensive efficiency in the country
heating up at the right time for sure, shooting 45.1% from 3 and 60.8% from the floor. youll see biggest weaknesses though = rebounding especially defense and defensive free throw rate of 52.8%. COACH SONNY aint gonna like that, defense without fouling and rebounding are his specialty
STATS TO HELP PICK BRACKETS:
i usually check out u/DubsLA posts on reddit, hes got really good bracket guides and updates them through the tourny
FIRST ROUND:
1 VS 16
The Guidline U-M-B-C. U-M-B-C. Is that what they chant? I don't know.
Post 2023 First Round Update: DERAILED. See above about Houston and Purdue playing really, really slow. Which two teams were in trouble in the first round?
-tldr: LOOK AT TEMPO but its a crapshoot
2 VS. 15
The Guideline: Does the #2 seed have an AdjO or AdjD worse than 50th? They are 6-4. All others? 41-2!
-2023 picks were ARIZONA + MARQUETTE
result: arizona lost, marquette pulled away with 10 minutes left
3 vs 14
The Guideline: Look at #14 seeds that are balanced with an AdjO and AdjD with 40 places of each other (i.e. 100 AdjO and 120 AdjD is balanced, 10 AdjO and 200 AdjD is not). They are 5-9. All other #14 seeds? 2-36.
-2023 picks: Kennesaw state
-result: Kennesaw was really really close to pulling off the upset but came up short
4 vs 13
The Guideline: Does the #4 seed have an AdjO or AdjD outside of the Top 40? Yes. Does the #13 seed have an AdjO or AdjD inside the Top 50? Yes. Those #13 seeds are 6-5. Everyone else? 7-38.
-2023 picks: Louisiana > Tennessee is the closest, Furman > Virginia and Kent State > Indiana also fit this year. over past decade only 11 instances fit, this year there are 3/4
-result= Tennessee and Indiana survives, Furman upsets Virginia
5 vs 12
The Guideline: Does the #5 seed have an AdjO or AdjD outside of the Top 60? They are 5-15. Everyone else? 28-8. Guideline #2: Is this #12 seed inside the Top 60 overall? Those teams are 14-11. Others are 8-23.
-2023 picks: Miami and SDSU both fit this
-result: both ended up winning, probably the closest 2 games both played up until the final four matchups. miami was actually pretty close to getting knocked out..
6 vs 11
The Guideline: Break these into three categories. 1) Non-Upsets (#11 seed is better or within five spots overall of the #6 seed). Those #11 seeds are 12-5. 2) True Upsets (#11 seed is 25 spots overall or more behind the #6 seed). There's ALWAYS one of these a year. Look at #6 seeds with an AdjO or AdjD outside of the Top 60. They are 3-7. Others? 9-4. 3) Neither. These games are 100% a coin flip.
-2023 picks: every matchup fit into upset status.
-result: Iowa state upset, TCU barely survives, pitt/kentucky advance
7 vs 10
The Guideline: Which team is better in Overall T-Rank? Take them. They are 39-16 in this game.
-2023 picks: dont take mich st, tamu, boise st, utah state
-result: only mich st advances
JUST POSTING FIRST ROUND TODAY
wanted to show how he picked in the bracket last year and how it ended up, pretty good stuff overall. also the #1 team in the final AP poll always flops. thats all i got! WDE
@DavistonTiger @DufnerFanBoy @Mikecb22 @Docdumpsta @gatorz1209 @BreakfastBurrito @bprockman_100 @Bob Mapplethorpe @AUgncEngineer @Ruxpin
3 teams got 8/10 last season: UCLA (S16), Houston(S16), Purdue(R64). UCONN had 7/10 (no RS/CT title)
this year these team have 8/10: houston, uconn, purdue, tennessee, unc, creighton, auburn, duke
wayyyyy more competitors. should get interesting
fouling on defense is biggest flaw right now for auburn
aden fell just below 8ppg now (7.8). have to win at least one conference tournament game which auburn hasnt done since 2019 @DavistonTiger
although auburs offense has been lacking somewhat, since feb 18th auburn has the #1 adjusted offensive efficiency in the country
heating up at the right time for sure, shooting 45.1% from 3 and 60.8% from the floor. youll see biggest weaknesses though = rebounding especially defense and defensive free throw rate of 52.8%. COACH SONNY aint gonna like that, defense without fouling and rebounding are his specialty
STATS TO HELP PICK BRACKETS:
i usually check out u/DubsLA posts on reddit, hes got really good bracket guides and updates them through the tourny
FIRST ROUND:
1 VS 16
The Guidline U-M-B-C. U-M-B-C. Is that what they chant? I don't know.
Post 2023 First Round Update: DERAILED. See above about Houston and Purdue playing really, really slow. Which two teams were in trouble in the first round?
-tldr: LOOK AT TEMPO but its a crapshoot
2 VS. 15
The Guideline: Does the #2 seed have an AdjO or AdjD worse than 50th? They are 6-4. All others? 41-2!
-2023 picks were ARIZONA + MARQUETTE
result: arizona lost, marquette pulled away with 10 minutes left
3 vs 14
The Guideline: Look at #14 seeds that are balanced with an AdjO and AdjD with 40 places of each other (i.e. 100 AdjO and 120 AdjD is balanced, 10 AdjO and 200 AdjD is not). They are 5-9. All other #14 seeds? 2-36.
-2023 picks: Kennesaw state
-result: Kennesaw was really really close to pulling off the upset but came up short
4 vs 13
The Guideline: Does the #4 seed have an AdjO or AdjD outside of the Top 40? Yes. Does the #13 seed have an AdjO or AdjD inside the Top 50? Yes. Those #13 seeds are 6-5. Everyone else? 7-38.
-2023 picks: Louisiana > Tennessee is the closest, Furman > Virginia and Kent State > Indiana also fit this year. over past decade only 11 instances fit, this year there are 3/4
-result= Tennessee and Indiana survives, Furman upsets Virginia
5 vs 12
The Guideline: Does the #5 seed have an AdjO or AdjD outside of the Top 60? They are 5-15. Everyone else? 28-8. Guideline #2: Is this #12 seed inside the Top 60 overall? Those teams are 14-11. Others are 8-23.
-2023 picks: Miami and SDSU both fit this
-result: both ended up winning, probably the closest 2 games both played up until the final four matchups. miami was actually pretty close to getting knocked out..
6 vs 11
The Guideline: Break these into three categories. 1) Non-Upsets (#11 seed is better or within five spots overall of the #6 seed). Those #11 seeds are 12-5. 2) True Upsets (#11 seed is 25 spots overall or more behind the #6 seed). There's ALWAYS one of these a year. Look at #6 seeds with an AdjO or AdjD outside of the Top 60. They are 3-7. Others? 9-4. 3) Neither. These games are 100% a coin flip.
-2023 picks: every matchup fit into upset status.
-result: Iowa state upset, TCU barely survives, pitt/kentucky advance
7 vs 10
The Guideline: Which team is better in Overall T-Rank? Take them. They are 39-16 in this game.
-2023 picks: dont take mich st, tamu, boise st, utah state
-result: only mich st advances
JUST POSTING FIRST ROUND TODAY
wanted to show how he picked in the bracket last year and how it ended up, pretty good stuff overall. also the #1 team in the final AP poll always flops. thats all i got! WDE
@DavistonTiger @DufnerFanBoy @Mikecb22 @Docdumpsta @gatorz1209 @BreakfastBurrito @bprockman_100 @Bob Mapplethorpe @AUgncEngineer @Ruxpin
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