Baseball
2 of our >.900 OPS batters out made for a tough lineup. pierce has dropped off since the injury as well when we worked him back. Stanfield has been a good surprise and Gavin Miller (cut off at the bottom) probably deserves a shot as well. other than that not very deep from an offensive perspective... Foster really turned it up before the injury as well, howell coming along nicely
most improved pitchers this week = Nelson, Crotchfelt, and Bauman. Still figuring out this pitching jigsaw puzzle but theres some pieces to work with especially when gonzo gets back. Need to figure out a way to use Vail + Bauman against SEC lineups imo. Also Allsup and Isbell have to pick it up to close out games
Current RPI Team sheet
took about a 35-40 place hit in RPI with that series loss to SELA
Projected RPI team sheet
still too early but best guess at where these teams land at end of the season
Upcoming 2 week stretch with predicted results
really need to take 1 off arky this weekend and a win vs GT at the very least
will post composite rankings here tomorrow afternoon
Basketball
barttorvik has some fun stuff this year
avg Ws = average tourny wins of teams with similar profiles
some more on iowa matchup
and some interesting stats for bracket stuff that i stole from reddit (reposting from last week)
Here are the number of double-digit seed upsets in the 1st round since 2010:
Since the 1985 expansion, only six preseason #1 teams have won the NCAA title: 1990 UNLV, 1992 Duke, 1996 Kentucky, 2004 Connecticut, 2007 Florida and 2009 UNC. You may not want to pick the preseason #1 UNC to win it all this year.
Only three times has the overall No. 1 seed won the NCAA Tournament since the selection committee began ranking the No. 1s in 2004: Florida (2007), Kentucky ('12) and Louisville ('13).
Here's a breakdown of which conference the last 24 champions have come from since 1998:
Welcome to the sixth year (technically 7th year, but Covid canceled the 2020 NCAA tournament) of my research into pre-tournament stats that can help determine which teams most closely resemble prior Ken Pom era champions. For people who are familiar with my previous year’s posts, it’s great to talk NCAA Tournament basketball again! For those who are new, get ready for a deep dive into which teams are the championship contenders for this year’s tournament. We still have to get through champ week, but I thought it would be fun to look at where things currently stand.
In the past I have collected 12 stat categories, scraped various websites for data, used index/matching in excel, and spent way more time than I’d like to admit to come up with my infamous spreadsheet. I have decided to remove the “Frontcourt player averaging over 12 ppg” and “4 players averaging double figures” stat categories for this year. So, instead of 12 stat categories, we are down to 10. The game has certainly changed and the last four title winners didn’t have a frontcourt player who averaged more than 12 ppg. Also, 7 of the last 21 Ken Pom era champions didn’t have four players average double figures. These two stat categories were statistically the weakest of all the stat categories in the Ken Pom era (2002)
Now before I get started please note: I collected pre-tournament stats for each stat category for all champions since 2002 (Ken Pom era) to use for my comparison to this years teams.
Over the years, I have identified which stats have the strongest correlation to all champions in the Ken Pom era (since 2002). The six that I’ve found matter most include:
4 seed or better
• Since 1989, 33 out of the last 34 champions have been a 4 seed or better. 2014 Uconn was a 7 seed
Ken Pom Ranking in top 25
• Since 2002, every champion has been in the top 25 in Ken Poms rankings on each selection Sunday
Top 25 Ken Pom adjusted offense to match most past champions
• Since 2002, every champion, except 2014 Uconn: ranked 58th, had a Ken Pom offense rated 25th or better before the start of the tournament.
Top 40 Ken Pom adjusted defense to match ALL past champions
• Since 2002, every champion, except 2021 Baylor: ranked 44th, had a Ken Pom defense rated 40th or better before the start of the tournament.
Win regular season title (RS) or win conference tournament (CT)
• Since the 1997 Arizona team, Uconn (2014) and Duke (2015) are the only national champions that have not finished either first or tied for first in their conference regular season or won their conference tournament
Have a head coach who has been to the elite 8 before
• Since 2002, every champion, except 2014 Uconn, had a head coach who had been to the elite 8 before.
#In the Ken Pom era, 17 of the last 20 champions met 9 or more stat categories before each tournament began. The three outliers were 2013 Louisville* (7 stat categories), 2014 Uconn (5 stat categories), and 2021 Baylor (8 stat categories)
Here are the number of stat categories met by all champions since 2002 before each tournament began:
It's typically the kiss of death to be the overall #1 seed. Only three times has the overall No. 1 seed won the NCAA Tournament since the selection committee began ranking the No. 1s in 2004: Florida (2007), Kentucky ('12) and Louisville ('13).
@DavistonTiger @grizzlyadams16 @ricedp105 @FIG-JAM (analytics expert) @Auburn73 @stutsman23 @jolivesr @Mr_Bandoliers @Docdumpsta @The Canoeman @Ruxpin @Bob Mapplethorpe @Russ47 @RBU1
2 of our >.900 OPS batters out made for a tough lineup. pierce has dropped off since the injury as well when we worked him back. Stanfield has been a good surprise and Gavin Miller (cut off at the bottom) probably deserves a shot as well. other than that not very deep from an offensive perspective... Foster really turned it up before the injury as well, howell coming along nicely
most improved pitchers this week = Nelson, Crotchfelt, and Bauman. Still figuring out this pitching jigsaw puzzle but theres some pieces to work with especially when gonzo gets back. Need to figure out a way to use Vail + Bauman against SEC lineups imo. Also Allsup and Isbell have to pick it up to close out games
Current RPI Team sheet
took about a 35-40 place hit in RPI with that series loss to SELA
Projected RPI team sheet
still too early but best guess at where these teams land at end of the season
Upcoming 2 week stretch with predicted results
really need to take 1 off arky this weekend and a win vs GT at the very least
will post composite rankings here tomorrow afternoon
Basketball
barttorvik has some fun stuff this year
avg Ws = average tourny wins of teams with similar profiles
some more on iowa matchup
and some interesting stats for bracket stuff that i stole from reddit (reposting from last week)
Here are the number of double-digit seed upsets in the 1st round since 2010:
- 2010: 8
- 2011: 6
- 2012: 9
- 2013: 8
- 2014: 7
- 2015: 5
- 2016: 10
- 2017: 5
- 2018: 6
- 2019: 8
- 2021: 9
- 2022: 7
- 2010: Kansas lost to UNI, 2nd round
- 2011: Pittsburgh lost to Butler, 2nd round
- 2012: Michigan State lost to Louisville, sweet 16-the 2nd round 1 seed upset didn't happen this year
- 2013: Gonzaga lost to Wichita State, 2nd round
- 2014: Wichita State lost to Kentucky, 2nd round
- 2015: Villanova lost to NC State, 2nd round
- 2016: Kansas lost Villanova, Oregon lost to Oklahoma, Virginia lost to Syracuse, all in the elite 8, the 2nd round 1 seed upset didn't happen this year
- 2017: Wisconsin upset Villanova, 2nd round
- 2018: Florida State upset Xavier, 2nd round
- 2019: North Carolina lost in the sweet 16, the 2nd round 1 seed upset didn't happen this year
- 2021: Loyola-Chicago upset Illinois, 2nd round
- 2022: UNC upset Baylor, 2nd round
Since the 1985 expansion, only six preseason #1 teams have won the NCAA title: 1990 UNLV, 1992 Duke, 1996 Kentucky, 2004 Connecticut, 2007 Florida and 2009 UNC. You may not want to pick the preseason #1 UNC to win it all this year.
Only three times has the overall No. 1 seed won the NCAA Tournament since the selection committee began ranking the No. 1s in 2004: Florida (2007), Kentucky ('12) and Louisville ('13).
Here's a breakdown of which conference the last 24 champions have come from since 1998:
- Atlantic Coast: 8
- Big East: 7
- Southeastern: 4
- Big Ten: 1
- Big 12: 3
- American: 1
Welcome to the sixth year (technically 7th year, but Covid canceled the 2020 NCAA tournament) of my research into pre-tournament stats that can help determine which teams most closely resemble prior Ken Pom era champions. For people who are familiar with my previous year’s posts, it’s great to talk NCAA Tournament basketball again! For those who are new, get ready for a deep dive into which teams are the championship contenders for this year’s tournament. We still have to get through champ week, but I thought it would be fun to look at where things currently stand.
In the past I have collected 12 stat categories, scraped various websites for data, used index/matching in excel, and spent way more time than I’d like to admit to come up with my infamous spreadsheet. I have decided to remove the “Frontcourt player averaging over 12 ppg” and “4 players averaging double figures” stat categories for this year. So, instead of 12 stat categories, we are down to 10. The game has certainly changed and the last four title winners didn’t have a frontcourt player who averaged more than 12 ppg. Also, 7 of the last 21 Ken Pom era champions didn’t have four players average double figures. These two stat categories were statistically the weakest of all the stat categories in the Ken Pom era (2002)
Now before I get started please note: I collected pre-tournament stats for each stat category for all champions since 2002 (Ken Pom era) to use for my comparison to this years teams.
Over the years, I have identified which stats have the strongest correlation to all champions in the Ken Pom era (since 2002). The six that I’ve found matter most include:
- 4 seed or better
- Ken Pom ranking in the top 25
- Top 25 Ken Pom adjusted offense
- Top 40 Ken Pom adjusted defense
- Win regular season title (RS) or win conference tournament (CT)
- Have a head coach who has been to the elite 8 before
4 seed or better
• Since 1989, 33 out of the last 34 champions have been a 4 seed or better. 2014 Uconn was a 7 seed
Ken Pom Ranking in top 25
• Since 2002, every champion has been in the top 25 in Ken Poms rankings on each selection Sunday
Top 25 Ken Pom adjusted offense to match most past champions
• Since 2002, every champion, except 2014 Uconn: ranked 58th, had a Ken Pom offense rated 25th or better before the start of the tournament.
Top 40 Ken Pom adjusted defense to match ALL past champions
• Since 2002, every champion, except 2021 Baylor: ranked 44th, had a Ken Pom defense rated 40th or better before the start of the tournament.
Win regular season title (RS) or win conference tournament (CT)
• Since the 1997 Arizona team, Uconn (2014) and Duke (2015) are the only national champions that have not finished either first or tied for first in their conference regular season or won their conference tournament
Have a head coach who has been to the elite 8 before
• Since 2002, every champion, except 2014 Uconn, had a head coach who had been to the elite 8 before.
#In the Ken Pom era, 17 of the last 20 champions met 9 or more stat categories before each tournament began. The three outliers were 2013 Louisville* (7 stat categories), 2014 Uconn (5 stat categories), and 2021 Baylor (8 stat categories)
Here are the number of stat categories met by all champions since 2002 before each tournament began:
- 2002 Maryland: 12
- 2003 Syracuse: 11
- 2004 Uconn: 11
- 2005 North Carolina: 11
- 2006 Florida: 11
- 2007 Florida: 12
- 2008 Kansas: 12
- 2009 North Carolina: 12
- 2010 Duke: 10
- 2011 Uconn: 9
- 2012 Kentucky: 12
- 2013 Louisville*: 7
- 2014 Uconn: 6
- 2015 Duke: 10
- 2016 Villanova: 9
- 2017 North Carolina: 10
- 2018 Villanova: 9
- 2019 Virginia : 9
- 2021 Baylor: 8
- 2022 Kansas: 10
It's typically the kiss of death to be the overall #1 seed. Only three times has the overall No. 1 seed won the NCAA Tournament since the selection committee began ranking the No. 1s in 2004: Florida (2007), Kentucky ('12) and Louisville ('13).
@DavistonTiger @grizzlyadams16 @ricedp105 @FIG-JAM (analytics expert) @Auburn73 @stutsman23 @jolivesr @Mr_Bandoliers @Docdumpsta @The Canoeman @Ruxpin @Bob Mapplethorpe @Russ47 @RBU1
Last edited:
